“In a typical month over 2015 we got 50 new members. That was up from 30 in a typical month during 2014. The pattern for 2015 was something like – Dec and Jan were way up, Feb and March were down, and after that in a typical month we had around 50.
This year, our daily average doesn’t seem to be down much since the pledge drive has finished (10th of Jan), so we hope that Feb will be at least a typical month. But we don’t yet have good evidence for expecting more members in a typical month than 50, which would leave us ~150 members down on our goal. ”
To go into a little more detail, I think the pattern is more like:
-Jan 2015 had a lot of people from the tail end of the Cambridge pledge drive.
-February, March 2015 fell back to 2014 levels. So they weren’t down so much as more “normal”
-April-November 2015 mostly had ~50 people, with an odd dip in August.
-December 2015, Jan 2016 had 100+ people each.
Thus, I will anticipate that February 2016 should at least be at a typical “month” in 2015, with a decent chance of another permanent increase on # of new members/month before June 2016.
My projection, that I’m willing to bet on: -at least a 40% chance of GWWC getting 60 new members in Feb 2016.
-at least a 45% chance that GWWC will have more than 1900 members by July 1st.
“In a typical month over 2015 we got 50 new members. That was up from 30 in a typical month during 2014. The pattern for 2015 was something like – Dec and Jan were way up, Feb and March were down, and after that in a typical month we had around 50.
This year, our daily average doesn’t seem to be down much since the pledge drive has finished (10th of Jan), so we hope that Feb will be at least a typical month. But we don’t yet have good evidence for expecting more members in a typical month than 50, which would leave us ~150 members down on our goal. ”
To go into a little more detail, I think the pattern is more like:
-Jan 2015 had a lot of people from the tail end of the Cambridge pledge drive.
-February, March 2015 fell back to 2014 levels. So they weren’t down so much as more “normal”
-April-November 2015 mostly had ~50 people, with an odd dip in August.
-December 2015, Jan 2016 had 100+ people each.
Thus, I will anticipate that February 2016 should at least be at a typical “month” in 2015, with a decent chance of another permanent increase on # of new members/month before June 2016.
My projection, that I’m willing to bet on:
-at least a 40% chance of GWWC getting 60 new members in Feb 2016.
-at least a 45% chance that GWWC will have more than 1900 members by July 1st.