I think it depends on how the tax is structured. A tax based solely on climate impacts is likely to fall primary on beef, which could increase consumption of chicken by increasing the price gap between them (an increasing beef-chicken price gap seems to have contributed to rising US chicken consumption over the last few decades). But a tax that also considers other environmental and animal welfare impacts could reduce all animal product consumption.
I was especially interested by this new Nature Communications study, which suggested a German meat climate tax might have a similar impact on beef and chicken prices. But it was based on data assuming a much lower beef climate impact, and higher chicken climate impact, than this Science2018 meta-analysis, which I think has the most reliable data.
I think it depends on how the tax is structured. A tax based solely on climate impacts is likely to fall primary on beef, which could increase consumption of chicken by increasing the price gap between them (an increasing beef-chicken price gap seems to have contributed to rising US chicken consumption over the last few decades). But a tax that also considers other environmental and animal welfare impacts could reduce all animal product consumption.
I was especially interested by this new Nature Communications study, which suggested a German meat climate tax might have a similar impact on beef and chicken prices. But it was based on data assuming a much lower beef climate impact, and higher chicken climate impact, than this Science 2018 meta-analysis, which I think has the most reliable data.