What are your thoughts on pledge programs like Challenge 22 and Veganuary? They seem promising to me, but I think current research hasn’t adequately addressed the counterfactual of whether these people would have gone vegan anyway.
I’d like to see more independent research on these programs, especially research that goes beyond self-reports. The area where we have the best data on diet change—dining hall studies on lectures and leaflets—suggests a huge gap between self-reported consumptions / intention, and actual consumption, especially when the self-reports are being collected by the group doing the advocacy. I think the key Qs are:
How many people who sign pledges counterfactually wouldn’t have gone veg anyway?
How much do pledge signers actually reduce animal product consumption?
How long do those reduction effects endure?
In favor of such programs, I would add there are some promising signs that Veganuary may be fueling broader positive changes in the UK, where it’s most established:
Google Trends data shows UK interest in veganism increasing, with searches peaking each January. (The UK govt’s Food and You surveys are less clear on whether rates of veg*ns are increasing in the UK—there’s a slight trend of vegans increasing and vegetarians decreasing, but the %s are so small I’d take this with a grain of salt.)
A lot of UK food chains have started launching new vegan products in January, often citing Veganuary. E.g. Tesco, Pizza Hut, Gregg’s. Of course they might have just introduced these at another time instead, but it does weakly suggest Veganuary is building corporate interest.
The recent Faunalytics Twitter Trend survey found that Veganuary attracts lots of tweets, most of them positive. (Though it did also find that all diet-related tweets surge in January, suggesting Veganuary doesn’t deserve all credit for the increase in interest in veganism that month.)
On the broader positive changes, how likely do you think it is that Veganuary the event and not the charity is already established enough (in the UK) that (UK) media/outreach for it is less neglected and useful? Even if Veganuary the charity stopped existing, the events would still happen each year.
I don’t have a good sense of this I’m afraid. My general sense is that Veganuary the charity is still the majority of the force behind the event, e.g. they’re the ones getting media, getting food companies to launch new products in January, etc. But I’m not that confident in that.
What are your thoughts on pledge programs like Challenge 22 and Veganuary? They seem promising to me, but I think current research hasn’t adequately addressed the counterfactual of whether these people would have gone vegan anyway.
Some of the research:
https://faunalytics.org/challenge-22-pilot-impact-study/
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bxqMGCLNaz8Cbq7Yr/cost-effectiveness-analysis-of-a-program-promoting-a-vegan
https://veganuary.com/what-impact-does-veganuary-have/
I’d like to see more independent research on these programs, especially research that goes beyond self-reports. The area where we have the best data on diet change—dining hall studies on lectures and leaflets—suggests a huge gap between self-reported consumptions / intention, and actual consumption, especially when the self-reports are being collected by the group doing the advocacy. I think the key Qs are:
How many people who sign pledges counterfactually wouldn’t have gone veg anyway?
How much do pledge signers actually reduce animal product consumption?
How long do those reduction effects endure?
In favor of such programs, I would add there are some promising signs that Veganuary may be fueling broader positive changes in the UK, where it’s most established:
Google Trends data shows UK interest in veganism increasing, with searches peaking each January. (The UK govt’s Food and You surveys are less clear on whether rates of veg*ns are increasing in the UK—there’s a slight trend of vegans increasing and vegetarians decreasing, but the %s are so small I’d take this with a grain of salt.)
A lot of UK food chains have started launching new vegan products in January, often citing Veganuary. E.g. Tesco, Pizza Hut, Gregg’s. Of course they might have just introduced these at another time instead, but it does weakly suggest Veganuary is building corporate interest.
The recent Faunalytics Twitter Trend survey found that Veganuary attracts lots of tweets, most of them positive. (Though it did also find that all diet-related tweets surge in January, suggesting Veganuary doesn’t deserve all credit for the increase in interest in veganism that month.)
Thanks!
On the broader positive changes, how likely do you think it is that Veganuary the event and not the charity is already established enough (in the UK) that (UK) media/outreach for it is less neglected and useful? Even if Veganuary the charity stopped existing, the events would still happen each year.
I don’t have a good sense of this I’m afraid. My general sense is that Veganuary the charity is still the majority of the force behind the event, e.g. they’re the ones getting media, getting food companies to launch new products in January, etc. But I’m not that confident in that.