To wit, I think a lot of retorts to Abraham’s argument appear to me to be of the form “well, this seems rather unlikely to happen”, whereas I don’t think such an argument actually succeeds.
Peter, do you find my arguments in the comments below persuasive? Basically I tried to argue that the relative probability of extremely good outcomes is much higher than the relative probability of extremely bad outcomes, especially when weighted by moral value. (And I think this is sufficiently true for both classical utilitarians and people with a slight negative leaning).
Peter, do you find my arguments in the comments below persuasive? Basically I tried to argue that the relative probability of extremely good outcomes is much higher than the relative probability of extremely bad outcomes, especially when weighted by moral value. (And I think this is sufficiently true for both classical utilitarians and people with a slight negative leaning).