Michael Huang comments on Preventing a US-China war as a policy priority

[Michael Huang]

No worries. I think we have different definitions of the status quo, and that is affecting our interpretation of the survey results.

Your definition of the status quo is a form of independence: functional independence (or perhaps de facto independence). In which case, since all the survey results show that “Maintain status quo” is popular, means that independence is the most popular choice.

My definition of the status quo is something in-between unification and independence, like a third way. It’s the “none of the above” choice, disapproving both unification and independence. If this definition is used, then all the survey results show that this position is the most popular choice.

It’s a shame that the survey question doesn’t actually define what the status quo is. The status quo changes over time too, so it’s hard to pin down.

But perhaps that is what makes the status quo option so popular. It’s a vague, undefined entity that can be interpreted whatever way you like.

Anyway, for completeness, here’s the full survey question from the data collection methodology:

The independence-unification (TI-UM) position is constructed from the following survey item:

“Thinking about Taiwan-mainland relations, there are several differing opinions:

1. unification as soon as possible;

2. independence as soon as possible;

3. maintain the status quo and move toward unification in the future;

4. maintain the status quo and move toward independence in the future;

5. maintain the status quo and decide in the future between independence or unification;

6. maintain the status quo indefinitely.

Which do you prefer?”

In addition to these six attitudes, the trend chart also includes non-responses for a total of seven categories.