I don’t think it’s advisable to treat these as independent probabilities you can multiply to get risk estimates, but perhaps it’s not that inaccurate. (e.g., it seems quite likely that the probability that the US retaliates is to some extent influenced by their estimate of the probability that it will cause a hot war with China)
I don’t think it’s advisable to treat these as independent probabilities you can multiply to get risk estimates, but perhaps it’s not that inaccurate. (e.g., it seems quite likely that the probability that the US retaliates is to some extent influenced by their estimate of the probability that it will cause a hot war with China)