Hauke Hillebrandt comments on Preventing a US-China war as a policy priority

Hauke Hillebrandt 22 Jun 2022 19:29 UTC
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Will China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan before 2025? Currently at 9%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030? Currently at 25%
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035? Currently at 39%
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond militarily? Currently at 66%
If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States? Currently at 60%
If China launches a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2035, will they successfully control Taiwan within three years? Currently at 56% (I’m at 75% personally)

Multiplying this out, the joint probabilities for hot US-Sino war in 3, 7, and 12 years, are thus, 4%, 10%, and 15% respectively.
- Marcel D 23 Jun 2022 0:02 UTC
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  I don’t think it’s advisable to treat these as independent probabilities you can multiply to get risk estimates, but perhaps it’s not that inaccurate. (e.g., it seems quite likely that the probability that the US retaliates is to some extent influenced by their estimate of the probability that it will cause a hot war with China)