Weakly downvoting due to over-strong claims and the evidence doesn’t fully support your view. This is weak evidence against AGI claims, but the claims in this comment are too strong.
Quoting Greg Colbourn:
I agree that finding the cruxes of disagreement are important, but I don’t think any of the critical quotes you present above are that strong. The reviews of semi-informative priors talk about error bars and precision (i.e. critique the model), but don’t actually give different answers. On explosive growth, Jones talks about the conclusion being contrary to his “intuitions”, and acknowledges that “[his] views may prove wrong”. Vollrath mentions “output and demand”, but then talks about human productivity when regarding outputs, and admits that AI could create new in-demand products. If these are the best existing sources for lowering the Future Fund’s probabilities, then I think someone should be able to do better.
Weakly downvoting due to over-strong claims and the evidence doesn’t fully support your view. This is weak evidence against AGI claims, but the claims in this comment are too strong.
Quoting Greg Colbourn: