Two questions (although I very probably won’t make a submission myself):
How likely do you think it is that anyone will win?
How many hours of work do you expect a winning submission to take? The reports you cite for informing your views seem like they were pretty substantial.
We are very unsure on both counts! There are some Manifold Markets on the first question, though!
I do think articles wouldn’t necessarily need to be that long to be convincing to us, and this may be a consequence of Open Philanthropy’s thoroughness. Part of our hope for these prizes is that we’ll get a wider range of people weighing in on these debates (and I’d expect less length there).
Link doesn’t work for me. What does work for me is going to http://manifold.markets/ and searching “future fund”, it does work (and this gives me the exact URL that you linked, so I’m not sure why the link doesn’t work).
Two questions (although I very probably won’t make a submission myself):
How likely do you think it is that anyone will win?
How many hours of work do you expect a winning submission to take? The reports you cite for informing your views seem like they were pretty substantial.
We are very unsure on both counts! There are some Manifold Markets on the first question, though!
I do think articles wouldn’t necessarily need to be that long to be convincing to us, and this may be a consequence of Open Philanthropy’s thoroughness. Part of our hope for these prizes is that we’ll get a wider range of people weighing in on these debates (and I’d expect less length there).
Link doesn’t work for me. What does work for me is going to http://manifold.markets/ and searching “future fund”, it does work (and this gives me the exact URL that you linked, so I’m not sure why the link doesn’t work).