Two questions (although I very probably wonât make a submission myself):
How likely do you think it is that anyone will win?
How many hours of work do you expect a winning submission to take? The reports you cite for informing your views seem like they were pretty substantial.
We are very unsure on both counts! There are some Manifold Markets on the first question, though!
I do think articles wouldnât necessarily need to be that long to be convincing to us, and this may be a consequence of Open Philanthropyâs thoroughness. Part of our hope for these prizes is that weâll get a wider range of people weighing in on these debates (and Iâd expect less length there).
Link doesnât work for me. What does work for me is going to http://ââmanifold.markets/ââ and searching âfuture fundâ, it does work (and this gives me the exact URL that you linked, so Iâm not sure why the link doesnât work).
Two questions (although I very probably wonât make a submission myself):
How likely do you think it is that anyone will win?
How many hours of work do you expect a winning submission to take? The reports you cite for informing your views seem like they were pretty substantial.
We are very unsure on both counts! There are some Manifold Markets on the first question, though!
I do think articles wouldnât necessarily need to be that long to be convincing to us, and this may be a consequence of Open Philanthropyâs thoroughness. Part of our hope for these prizes is that weâll get a wider range of people weighing in on these debates (and Iâd expect less length there).
Link doesnât work for me. What does work for me is going to http://ââmanifold.markets/ââ and searching âfuture fundâ, it does work (and this gives me the exact URL that you linked, so Iâm not sure why the link doesnât work).