I think that most of this is good analysis: I am not convinced by all of it, but it is universally well-grounded and useful. However, the point about Communicating Risk, in my view, misunderstands the point of the original post, and the spirit in which the discussion was happening at the time. It was not framed with the goal of “what should we, a group that includes a handful of policymakers among a large number, be aiming to convince with”. Rather, I saw it as a personally relevant tool that I used to validate advice to friends and loved ones about when they should personally get out of town.
Evaluating the cost in effective hours of life made a comparison they and I could work with: how many hours of my life would I pay to avoid relocating for a month and paying for an AirBnB? I recognize that it’s unusual to discuss GCRs this way, and I would never do it if I were writing in a RAND publication (I would use the preferred technostrategic language), but it was appropriate and useful in this context.
I think that most of this is good analysis: I am not convinced by all of it, but it is universally well-grounded and useful. However, the point about Communicating Risk, in my view, misunderstands the point of the original post, and the spirit in which the discussion was happening at the time. It was not framed with the goal of “what should we, a group that includes a handful of policymakers among a large number, be aiming to convince with”. Rather, I saw it as a personally relevant tool that I used to validate advice to friends and loved ones about when they should personally get out of town.
Evaluating the cost in effective hours of life made a comparison they and I could work with: how many hours of my life would I pay to avoid relocating for a month and paying for an AirBnB? I recognize that it’s unusual to discuss GCRs this way, and I would never do it if I were writing in a RAND publication (I would use the preferred technostrategic language), but it was appropriate and useful in this context.