Aaron Gertler 🔸 comments on Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project: an accompanying blog post

[Aaron Gertler 🔸]

This post was awarded an EA Forum Prize; see the prize announcement for more details.

My notes on what I liked about the post, from the announcement:

“Evidence on good forecasting practices from the Good Judgment Project” is a thorough, well-organized summary of forecasting — a topic often discussed on the Forum, but rarely with this amount of data.

We may know that prediction markets are “useful”, but the author goes far beyond that, explaining how well different types of markets (and non-market mechanisms) have performed in prediction tournaments, and which characteristics the best forecasters tend to have. This research could be useful to any number of future forecasting projects in the community.

Additionally, the author:

• Uses numbered headers to separate sections.

• Includes hyperlinked footnotes for all citations.

• Notes cases where information from original sources is missing or uncertain, giving readers ideas for ways to contribute to his research. (For example, I’d love to learn more about Tetlock’s “perpetual beta” concept, if anyone cares to go and find it.)

Overall, this is a remarkable post, and I hope that other Forum users create similarly excellent summaries of important concepts.