For sure, forecasters who devoted more effort to it tended to make more accurate predictions. It would be surprising if that wasn’t true!
I agree. But I am not referring to an extra effort that makes a person provide a better forecast (e.g. by spending more time looking for arguments), but rather an extra effort that allows one to improve their average daily Brier scores by simply using new public information that was not available when the question was first presented (e.g. new poll results).
I agree that this was probably a factor that contributed to the accuracy gains of people who made more frequent forecasts. It may even have been doing most of the work; I’m not sure.
I agree. But I am not referring to an extra effort that makes a person provide a better forecast (e.g. by spending more time looking for arguments), but rather an extra effort that allows one to improve their average daily Brier scores by simply using new public information that was not available when the question was first presented (e.g. new poll results).
I agree that this was probably a factor that contributed to the accuracy gains of people who made more frequent forecasts. It may even have been doing most of the work; I’m not sure.