In case it helps others decide whether or not to take the Superforecasting Fundamentals course, I’m reposting a brief message I sent to the CEA Slack workspace back in August 2017:
I took it a year or so ago. The course is very good, but also very basic: I clearly wasn’t the target audience, since I was already quite familiar with most of the content. I wouldn’t recommend it unless you don’t know anything about forecasting.
For sure, forecasters who devoted more effort to it tended to make more accurate predictions. It would be surprising if that wasn’t true!
I agree. But I am not referring to an extra effort that makes a person provide a better forecast (e.g. by spending more time looking for arguments), but rather an extra effort that allows one to improve their average daily Brier scores by simply using new public information that was not available when the question was first presented (e.g. new poll results).
I agree that this was probably a factor that contributed to the accuracy gains of people who made more frequent forecasts. It may even have been doing most of the work; I’m not sure.
The exact training module they used is probably not public, but they do have a training module on their website. It costs money though.
For sure, forecasters who devoted more effort to it tended to make more accurate predictions. It would be surprising if that wasn’t true!
In case it helps others decide whether or not to take the Superforecasting Fundamentals course, I’m reposting a brief message I sent to the CEA Slack workspace back in August 2017:
I agree. But I am not referring to an extra effort that makes a person provide a better forecast (e.g. by spending more time looking for arguments), but rather an extra effort that allows one to improve their average daily Brier scores by simply using new public information that was not available when the question was first presented (e.g. new poll results).
I agree that this was probably a factor that contributed to the accuracy gains of people who made more frequent forecasts. It may even have been doing most of the work; I’m not sure.