One response I gave to a similar question on Twitter was that my goal wasn’t to evaluate the three cases the way they could have been (and were) scrutinized last fall, but only on the dimensions for which we have new evidence now regarding how their predictions compare to what’s happened.
So I don’t go into detail about how e.g. their cases were good because Trump is reducing NEPA burdens, or bad because he’s threatening the visa status of talented grad students, or other things that seem to me to have been “priced in” by both Trump and Harris supporters last fall.
I don’t think I said that it’s too early to say. If you’re referring to this, it’s referencing Hammond’s opinion:
One response I gave to a similar question on Twitter was that my goal wasn’t to evaluate the three cases the way they could have been (and were) scrutinized last fall, but only on the dimensions for which we have new evidence now regarding how their predictions compare to what’s happened.
So I don’t go into detail about how e.g. their cases were good because Trump is reducing NEPA burdens, or bad because he’s threatening the visa status of talented grad students, or other things that seem to me to have been “priced in” by both Trump and Harris supporters last fall.