Iâm glad someone wrote this up, but I actually donât see much evaluation here from you, apart from âitâs too early to sayâ, but then Zhou Enlai pointed out that you could say that about the French Revolution,[1] and I think we can probably say some things. I generally have you mapped to the âright-wing Rationalistâ subgroup Arjun,[2] so itâd be actually interested to get your opinion instead of trying to read between the lines on what you may or may not believe. I think there was a pretty strong swing in Silicon Valley /â Tech Twitter & TPOT /â Broader Rationalism towards Trump, and I think this isnât turning out well, so Iâd actually be interested to see people saying what they actually thinkâbe that âI made a huge mistakeâ, âIt was a bad gamble but Harris wouldâve been worseâ or even âThis is exactly what I wantâ
One response I gave to a similar question on Twitter was that my goal wasnât to evaluate the three cases the way they could have been (and were) scrutinized last fall, but only on the dimensions for which we have new evidence now regarding how their predictions compare to whatâs happened.
So I donât go into detail about how e.g. their cases were good because Trump is reducing NEPA burdens, or bad because heâs threatening the visa status of talented grad students, or other things that seem to me to have been âpriced inâ by both Trump and Harris supporters last fall.
Iâm glad someone wrote this up, but I actually donât see much evaluation here from you, apart from âitâs too early to sayâ, but then Zhou Enlai pointed out that you could say that about the French Revolution,[1] and I think we can probably say some things. I generally have you mapped to the âright-wing Rationalistâ subgroup Arjun,[2] so itâd be actually interested to get your opinion instead of trying to read between the lines on what you may or may not believe. I think there was a pretty strong swing in Silicon Valley /â Tech Twitter & TPOT /â Broader Rationalism towards Trump, and I think this isnât turning out well, so Iâd actually be interested to see people saying what they actually thinkâbe that âI made a huge mistakeâ, âIt was a bad gamble but Harris wouldâve been worseâ or even âThis is exactly what I wantâ
I know itâs not apocryphal but itâs a good quote
Let me know if this is wrong and/âor you donât identify this way
I donât think I said that itâs too early to say. If youâre referring to this, itâs referencing Hammondâs opinion:
One response I gave to a similar question on Twitter was that my goal wasnât to evaluate the three cases the way they could have been (and were) scrutinized last fall, but only on the dimensions for which we have new evidence now regarding how their predictions compare to whatâs happened.
So I donât go into detail about how e.g. their cases were good because Trump is reducing NEPA burdens, or bad because heâs threatening the visa status of talented grad students, or other things that seem to me to have been âpriced inâ by both Trump and Harris supporters last fall.