Since we wrote this submission I have come across this nice forum piece looking at some of the evidence comparing generalist forecasters and domain experts. From my (biased) perspective it generally confirms some of the statements we make in this piece but also really highlights that more work is needed. I’d definitely suggest giving it a read.
Since we wrote this submission I have come across this nice forum piece looking at some of the evidence comparing generalist forecasters and domain experts. From my (biased) perspective it generally confirms some of the statements we make in this piece but also really highlights that more work is needed. I’d definitely suggest giving it a read.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qZqvBLvR5hX9sEkjR/comparing-top-forecasters-and-domain-experts
The link doesn’t work, can you press space after it so that it does.
Thanks!