I don’t think your argument reflects much on the importance of forecasting. E.g., it might be the case that forecasting is much more important than whatever experts are going (in absolute terms), but nonetheless, experts should do their things because no one else can substitute them. (To be clear, this is a hypothetical against the structure of the argument.)
I think it’s best to access the value of information you can get from forecasting directly.
Hopefully, we can make forecasts credible and communicate it to sympathetic experts on such teams.
For 2 how important do you think forecasting is if those best suited to it (assuming experts are) shouldn’t be spending their time on it?
For ID settings early outbreak forecasts can be critical and the decisions made are often informed by local + international expert teams.
I don’t think your argument reflects much on the importance of forecasting. E.g., it might be the case that forecasting is much more important than whatever experts are going (in absolute terms), but nonetheless, experts should do their things because no one else can substitute them. (To be clear, this is a hypothetical against the structure of the argument.)
I think it’s best to access the value of information you can get from forecasting directly.
Hopefully, we can make forecasts credible and communicate it to sympathetic experts on such teams.