Roughly in line with Peterās statement that āI think the longtermist effort with the highest expected value is spending time trying to figure out what longtermist efforts we should prioritizeā, I recently argued (with some caveats and uncertainties) that marginal longtermist donations will tend to be better used to support āfundamentalā rather than āinterventionā research. On what those terms mean, I wrote:
Itās most useful to distinguish intervention research from fundamental research based on whether the aim is to:
better understand, design, and/āor prioritise among a small set of specific, already-identified intervention options, or
better understand aspects of the world that may be relevant to a large set of intervention options (more)
See that postās āKey takeawaysā for the main arguments for and against that overall position of mine.
I think Iād also argue that marginal longtermist research hours (not just donations) will tend to be better used to support fundamental rather than intervention research. (But here personal fit becomes quite important.) And I think Iād also currently tend to prioritise āfundamentalā research over non-research interventions, but I havenāt thought about that as much and didnāt discuss it in the post.
So the highest-EV-on-the-current-margin efforts Iād pick would probably be in the āfundamental researchā category.
Of course, these are all just general rules, and the value of different fundamental research efforts, intervention research efforts, and non-research efforts will vary greatly.
In terms of specific fundamental research efforts Iām currently personally excited about, these include analyses, from a longtermist perspective, of:
Basically, those things seem like variables that might (or might not!) matter a great deal, and (as far as Iām aware) havenāt yet been looked into from a longtermist perspective much. So I expect there could be some valuable low-hanging fruit there.
Maybe if I had to pick just three, Iād bundle the first two together, and then stamp my feet and say āBut I want four!ā
(I have more thoughts on this that I may write about later. See also this and this. And again, these are just my personal, current views.)
(Just my personal views, as always)
Roughly in line with Peterās statement that āI think the longtermist effort with the highest expected value is spending time trying to figure out what longtermist efforts we should prioritizeā, I recently argued (with some caveats and uncertainties) that marginal longtermist donations will tend to be better used to support āfundamentalā rather than āinterventionā research. On what those terms mean, I wrote:
See that postās āKey takeawaysā for the main arguments for and against that overall position of mine.
I think Iād also argue that marginal longtermist research hours (not just donations) will tend to be better used to support fundamental rather than intervention research. (But here personal fit becomes quite important.) And I think Iād also currently tend to prioritise āfundamentalā research over non-research interventions, but I havenāt thought about that as much and didnāt discuss it in the post.
So the highest-EV-on-the-current-margin efforts Iād pick would probably be in the āfundamental researchā category.
Of course, these are all just general rules, and the value of different fundamental research efforts, intervention research efforts, and non-research efforts will vary greatly.
In terms of specific fundamental research efforts Iām currently personally excited about, these include analyses, from a longtermist perspective, of:
totalitarianism/ādystopias,
world government (see also),
civilizational collapse and recovery,
āthe long reflectionā, and/āor
long-term risks from malevolent actors
Basically, those things seem like variables that might (or might not!) matter a great deal, and (as far as Iām aware) havenāt yet been looked into from a longtermist perspective much. So I expect there could be some valuable low-hanging fruit there.
Maybe if I had to pick just three, Iād bundle the first two together, and then stamp my feet and say āBut I want four!ā
(I have more thoughts on this that I may write about later. See also this and this. And again, these are just my personal, current views.)