On the biting the bullet answer, that doesn’t seem plausible to me. The preference we have are a product of the beliefs we have about what will make our lives better over the long-run. My preference not to smoke is entirely a product of the fact that I believe that it will increase my risk of premature death. Per proponents of cluelessness, I could argue “maybe it will make me look cool to smoke, and that will increase my chances of getting a desirable partner” or something like that. In that sense the sign of the effect of smoking on my own interests is not certain. Nevertheless, I think it is irrational to smoke. I don’t think a Parfitian understanding of identity would help here because then my refusal to smoke would be altruistic—I would be helping out my future self.
The dodge the bullet answer is more plausible, and I may follow up with more later.
The preference we have are a product of the beliefs we have about what will make our lives better over the long-run. My preference not to smoke is entirely a product of the fact that I believe that it will increase my risk of premature death.
I think this is precisely what I’m inclined to dispute. I think I simply have a preference against premature death, and that this preference doesn’t rest on any belief about my long-run wellbeing. I think my long-run wellbeing is way too weird (in the sense that I’m doing things like hyperbolic discounting anyway) and uncertain to ground such preferences.
Nevertheless, I think it is irrational to smoke.
Maybe this points to a crux here: I think on sufficiently demanding notions of rationality, I’d agree with you that considerations analogous to cluelessness threaten the claim that smoking is irrational. My impression is that perhaps the key difference between our views is that I’m less troubled by this.
I don’t think a Parfitian understanding of identity would help here
I’m inclined to agree. Just to clarify though, I wasn’t referring to Parfit’s claims about identity, which if I remember correctly are in the second or third part of Reasons and Persons. I was referring to the first part, where he among other things discusses what he calls the “self-interest theory S” (or something like this).
On the biting the bullet answer, that doesn’t seem plausible to me. The preference we have are a product of the beliefs we have about what will make our lives better over the long-run. My preference not to smoke is entirely a product of the fact that I believe that it will increase my risk of premature death. Per proponents of cluelessness, I could argue “maybe it will make me look cool to smoke, and that will increase my chances of getting a desirable partner” or something like that. In that sense the sign of the effect of smoking on my own interests is not certain. Nevertheless, I think it is irrational to smoke. I don’t think a Parfitian understanding of identity would help here because then my refusal to smoke would be altruistic—I would be helping out my future self.
The dodge the bullet answer is more plausible, and I may follow up with more later.
I think this is precisely what I’m inclined to dispute. I think I simply have a preference against premature death, and that this preference doesn’t rest on any belief about my long-run wellbeing. I think my long-run wellbeing is way too weird (in the sense that I’m doing things like hyperbolic discounting anyway) and uncertain to ground such preferences.
Maybe this points to a crux here: I think on sufficiently demanding notions of rationality, I’d agree with you that considerations analogous to cluelessness threaten the claim that smoking is irrational. My impression is that perhaps the key difference between our views is that I’m less troubled by this.
I’m inclined to agree. Just to clarify though, I wasn’t referring to Parfit’s claims about identity, which if I remember correctly are in the second or third part of Reasons and Persons. I was referring to the first part, where he among other things discusses what he calls the “self-interest theory S” (or something like this).