I’m not sure this is really on topic for EA, but I’ll provide a few brief thoughts anyway since I have a sizable amount of adjacent-experience with the topic, since my thesis was on the impact of technological shifts on irregular warfare dynamics.
I think there is much more academic skepticism towards the idea that “tanks shifted WWI” than you seem to think. I can’t remember all the sources, but I similarly had that initial impression until I started digging into the literature, and it turns out tanks were really clunky/unreliable, and at the time they didn’t have a good understanding of how to effectively use tanks as part of their broader operations (although there was also some initial uncertainty about how to counter tanks).
In short answer to your question, I would consider that a return to the kind of warfare seen in WWI is highly unlikely, for various reasons. In my thesis I reference the works of Stephen Biddle, who has his theory of the “modern system” of war. I’m going to leave out a lot of nuance for the sake of time, but basically, leading up to and especially since WWI, exposed and massed troop movements is not practical due to the (asymmetric) growth in lethality of modern weapons, including modern artillery and air power with satellite-enabled targeting.
I can’t really get into the question of what WWIII will look like; I’m sure there are plenty of posts out there by people who have spent far more time theorizing about it than I can here.
Thank you for the answer. I thought this might be a topic discussing in the forum, as the shape of future wars seems like a thing that could influence the long term future by a lot.
I don’t think that tanks shifted WWI on their own, but more in a combination of changed strategies and tactics. I fear more that a future war would grind to a kind of stalemate quickly, as modern weapons are so lethal (as you described) and favor the defender. Nuclear weapons would be a way to break such a stalemate. Therefore, I fear that this change in war might make the use of nuclear weapons more likely.
I’m not sure this is really on topic for EA, but I’ll provide a few brief thoughts anyway since I have a sizable amount of adjacent-experience with the topic, since my thesis was on the impact of technological shifts on irregular warfare dynamics.
I think there is much more academic skepticism towards the idea that “tanks shifted WWI” than you seem to think. I can’t remember all the sources, but I similarly had that initial impression until I started digging into the literature, and it turns out tanks were really clunky/unreliable, and at the time they didn’t have a good understanding of how to effectively use tanks as part of their broader operations (although there was also some initial uncertainty about how to counter tanks).
In short answer to your question, I would consider that a return to the kind of warfare seen in WWI is highly unlikely, for various reasons. In my thesis I reference the works of Stephen Biddle, who has his theory of the “modern system” of war. I’m going to leave out a lot of nuance for the sake of time, but basically, leading up to and especially since WWI, exposed and massed troop movements is not practical due to the (asymmetric) growth in lethality of modern weapons, including modern artillery and air power with satellite-enabled targeting.
I can’t really get into the question of what WWIII will look like; I’m sure there are plenty of posts out there by people who have spent far more time theorizing about it than I can here.
Thank you for the answer. I thought this might be a topic discussing in the forum, as the shape of future wars seems like a thing that could influence the long term future by a lot.
I don’t think that tanks shifted WWI on their own, but more in a combination of changed strategies and tactics. I fear more that a future war would grind to a kind of stalemate quickly, as modern weapons are so lethal (as you described) and favor the defender. Nuclear weapons would be a way to break such a stalemate. Therefore, I fear that this change in war might make the use of nuclear weapons more likely.