This comment does not sound like ‘completely standing by’ to me! If a $15/hour US minimum wage, which is the relevant current policy proposal, reduces employment, that means the intuition is correct.
I think the IGM poll is weak evidence for you here. Lets look at some quotes from the guys who didn’t agree that increasing the minimum wage would substantially increase unemployment (e.g. ostensibly disagreed with the intuition):
Evidence is that it would be lower by perhaps 1 − 2 %. Lots of margins for adjustments.
Lower, probably; substantially lower, not clear at all.
Empirical studies disagree on the sign of the effect. Few of those concluding in favor of negative are consistent with “substantially.”
I don’t think the evidence supports the bold prediction that employment will be substantially lower. Not impossible, but no strong evidence.
Empirical evidence suggests the effects on employment would be modest.
Lower, yes. “Substantially”? Not clear. For small changes in min wage, there are small changes in employment. But this is a big change.
In many cases, these people either 1) believe there would be unemployment, but are getting hung up on ‘substantial’, or 2) think there will be other adjustments (e.g. reduction in non-wage benefits). I think the headline result here is somewhat misleading—at that is before any adjustment for the partisan bias issue. If my intuition was that increasing the minimum wae would increase unemployment, and the people who ostensibly disagree with me think it would only cause 780,000[1] people to lose their jobs, I would consider myself vindicated.
I haven’t read that 2019 Dube review, though I’m guessing it’s similar to the other 2019 Dube review I posted. But as I noted in the grandparent, there is serious work on the other side since (e.g. the two 2021 papers).
This comment does not sound like ‘completely standing by’ to me! If a $15/hour US minimum wage, which is the relevant current policy proposal, reduces employment, that means the intuition is correct.
I think the IGM poll is weak evidence for you here. Lets look at some quotes from the guys who didn’t agree that increasing the minimum wage would substantially increase unemployment (e.g. ostensibly disagreed with the intuition):
In many cases, these people either 1) believe there would be unemployment, but are getting hung up on ‘substantial’, or 2) think there will be other adjustments (e.g. reduction in non-wage benefits). I think the headline result here is somewhat misleading—at that is before any adjustment for the partisan bias issue. If my intuition was that increasing the minimum wae would increase unemployment, and the people who ostensibly disagree with me think it would only cause 780,000[1] people to lose their jobs, I would consider myself vindicated.
I haven’t read that 2019 Dube review, though I’m guessing it’s similar to the other 2019 Dube review I posted. But as I noted in the grandparent, there is serious work on the other side since (e.g. the two 2021 papers).
52m people on under $15/hour according to Oxfam * 1.5% according to Nordhaus, who voted ‘disagree’