There are some relatively minor issues. For example, the methodology used in Wynes & Nicholas (from Murtaugh & Schlax) to compare the climate change impacts of less driving with fewer children involves comparing temporary changes in automobile usage with an infinite duration population change, which seems like an obviously unfair comparison. Indeed, there is nothing in this methodology to prevent each individual child from having an infinite impact on climate change… except that the authors arbitrarily prevented this, probably realising it would show their results were absurd:
Some lineages persist indefinitely, in which case a pre-specified time limit terminates the simulation.
Similarly, you suggest that ‘unintended’ pregnancy means women are ‘forced to bear children against their will’. But this is incorrect. Many couples are not planning on conceiving but are nonetheless happy to be blessed with a child! Indeed, the Wikipedia article you quote makes this clear in the sentence immediately preceding your quote:
Terming a pregnancy “unintended” does not indicate whether or not a pregnancy is welcomed
More importantly, when doing cost-benefit analysis, it is important to analyse both the costs and the benefits. Here, you analyse in detail the costs of population growth—but with no mention at all of the benefits. Yet these benefits are very large:
Population growth means more people will get to experience the joys of living. They will get to learn, play, make meaningful relationships and fall in love. They can play with lego, read books and enjoy the sunset. I think for most people life is good, so this is a huge deal!
Children benefit existing generations who will enjoy being parents and grandparents. Anecdotally grandchildren seem to be one of the primary joys in most grandparents’ lives, and people generally rank their relationship with their children as one of the most meaningful parts of their life.
Larger populations allow more specialisation and division of labour, which are key components of economic growth, as well as other economies of scale.
Larger populations mean more artists and scientists, whose inventions and discoveries can then be enjoyed by everyone at essentially zero marginal cost.
More prosaically, we need future generations to keep social security and other retirement systems working.
Given that the post has ignored all positives of population growth, it is unsurprising it found that population growth to be negative. Indeed, according to the analysis here—which treats people as entirely a burden, with no benefits whatsoever, whether to themselves or others—encouraging the deaths of existing people, by spreading the pandemic for example, could also appear a very positive policy!
Fair points that I ignored the benefits of larger populations—you are completely right. I didn’t do this, though, for the sake of brevity and because that is not something people need to be convinced of, generally.
If you claim, however, that there are large benefits to larger populations, then why bother with access to contraceptives in the first place—if people feel blessed with more children? Also, does that mean that societies should become arbitrarily large? It would almost follow from the points you raised.
Also, if you think that generally the benefits of children outweigh their costs, it should be common policy to have as many as parents want. This, however, cannot work on a finite planet with finite resources if parents would want, for example, to have at least 4 kids.
My personal view on this is that, as long as human population is below maximum carrying capacity (whatever that capacity may be—there are big arguments about it as you’re probably aware), an additional human probably has a “net-positive” effect on total happiness/suffering. Once, however, the total population surpasses a certain point (which may be way above long-term carrying capacity—because initially, negative effects will still be buffered by resource surplus). Once however you surpass that point, additional lives will have a net-negative effect on total happiness/suffering.
Take, for example, the following thought experiment. You have a population of 20 and a good which they need. The good has a recovery rate of 100 per year and a current total amount of 1000. Every individual in the population (of currently 20) consumes 5 units per year. They can survive also at 4 units a year; when they only get 3 units or less for each of them, they would suffer. You could add more consumers to this system for a long time because of the total stack of 1000, which will initially only be depleted slowly. At one point, consumption needs to drop to 4 units per individual p.a.. Individuals would prefer to consume 5 units but they cannot, and they do not suffer terribly from suffering 4 (but their utility is already less than at 5). If you now add more individuals to the system such that every individual can only consume 3 units, people will suffer one way or the other—through suboptimal resource access or armed conflict.
What I am trying to say is: Until a certain point, more individuals means more total happiness for all individuals. This, however, likely drops at one point until more individuals mean less total happiness and more total suffering.
Leaving the thought experiment aside, are humans currently having a net-positive impact on other lives? Worldwide average meat consumption per capita is currently at 43 kg p.a., with up to 100 kg annually per capita in the US. That means that the average human causes intense suffering to dozens of sentient animals through his or her lifetime—lives completely lived in captivity in factory farms with incredibly stressful slaughter conditions. Is this a net-positive impact on total happiness/suffering? It seems to me a rather anthropocentric/speciesist view that does not take into account total suffering caused by millions of individuals.
Needing future generations for social security is, by the way, the equivalent of a pyramid scheme if following the current approach. Gains in productivity eliminate a need for increasing future generation sizes. Do check out per-capita GDP productivity growth—you will see that automation solves much of this problem.
Lastly, I want to point out that I would never support death of people currently alive—and I don’t know why you would raise it. My post was clearly only about the gap of unmet contraceptive need. This is, obviously, ethically a completely different matter.
Edit: As I showed by citing several works related to the example of the Egyptian economy, a bigger population size does not actually translate into better division of labor, more scientists, and so on. It only does so if the state can grow its infrastructure and education opportunities alongside with the population. If the state can’t, then you actually have a relatively lower proportion of highly trained/skilled workforce. This phenomenon is actually well studied in several developing countries which, currently, seek to slow down their population growth because the population grows much faster than the (relatively poor) states can ensure healthy economic development and opportunities for individuals.
I think this post is very mistaken.
There are some relatively minor issues. For example, the methodology used in Wynes & Nicholas (from Murtaugh & Schlax) to compare the climate change impacts of less driving with fewer children involves comparing temporary changes in automobile usage with an infinite duration population change, which seems like an obviously unfair comparison. Indeed, there is nothing in this methodology to prevent each individual child from having an infinite impact on climate change… except that the authors arbitrarily prevented this, probably realising it would show their results were absurd:
Similarly, you suggest that ‘unintended’ pregnancy means women are ‘forced to bear children against their will’. But this is incorrect. Many couples are not planning on conceiving but are nonetheless happy to be blessed with a child! Indeed, the Wikipedia article you quote makes this clear in the sentence immediately preceding your quote:
More importantly, when doing cost-benefit analysis, it is important to analyse both the costs and the benefits. Here, you analyse in detail the costs of population growth—but with no mention at all of the benefits. Yet these benefits are very large:
Population growth means more people will get to experience the joys of living. They will get to learn, play, make meaningful relationships and fall in love. They can play with lego, read books and enjoy the sunset. I think for most people life is good, so this is a huge deal!
Children benefit existing generations who will enjoy being parents and grandparents. Anecdotally grandchildren seem to be one of the primary joys in most grandparents’ lives, and people generally rank their relationship with their children as one of the most meaningful parts of their life.
Larger populations allow more specialisation and division of labour, which are key components of economic growth, as well as other economies of scale.
Larger populations mean more artists and scientists, whose inventions and discoveries can then be enjoyed by everyone at essentially zero marginal cost.
More prosaically, we need future generations to keep social security and other retirement systems working.
Given that the post has ignored all positives of population growth, it is unsurprising it found that population growth to be negative. Indeed, according to the analysis here—which treats people as entirely a burden, with no benefits whatsoever, whether to themselves or others—encouraging the deaths of existing people, by spreading the pandemic for example, could also appear a very positive policy!
Fair points that I ignored the benefits of larger populations—you are completely right. I didn’t do this, though, for the sake of brevity and because that is not something people need to be convinced of, generally.
If you claim, however, that there are large benefits to larger populations, then why bother with access to contraceptives in the first place—if people feel blessed with more children? Also, does that mean that societies should become arbitrarily large? It would almost follow from the points you raised.
Also, if you think that generally the benefits of children outweigh their costs, it should be common policy to have as many as parents want. This, however, cannot work on a finite planet with finite resources if parents would want, for example, to have at least 4 kids.
My personal view on this is that, as long as human population is below maximum carrying capacity (whatever that capacity may be—there are big arguments about it as you’re probably aware), an additional human probably has a “net-positive” effect on total happiness/suffering. Once, however, the total population surpasses a certain point (which may be way above long-term carrying capacity—because initially, negative effects will still be buffered by resource surplus). Once however you surpass that point, additional lives will have a net-negative effect on total happiness/suffering.
Take, for example, the following thought experiment. You have a population of 20 and a good which they need. The good has a recovery rate of 100 per year and a current total amount of 1000. Every individual in the population (of currently 20) consumes 5 units per year. They can survive also at 4 units a year; when they only get 3 units or less for each of them, they would suffer. You could add more consumers to this system for a long time because of the total stack of 1000, which will initially only be depleted slowly. At one point, consumption needs to drop to 4 units per individual p.a.. Individuals would prefer to consume 5 units but they cannot, and they do not suffer terribly from suffering 4 (but their utility is already less than at 5). If you now add more individuals to the system such that every individual can only consume 3 units, people will suffer one way or the other—through suboptimal resource access or armed conflict.
What I am trying to say is: Until a certain point, more individuals means more total happiness for all individuals. This, however, likely drops at one point until more individuals mean less total happiness and more total suffering.
Leaving the thought experiment aside, are humans currently having a net-positive impact on other lives? Worldwide average meat consumption per capita is currently at 43 kg p.a., with up to 100 kg annually per capita in the US. That means that the average human causes intense suffering to dozens of sentient animals through his or her lifetime—lives completely lived in captivity in factory farms with incredibly stressful slaughter conditions. Is this a net-positive impact on total happiness/suffering? It seems to me a rather anthropocentric/speciesist view that does not take into account total suffering caused by millions of individuals.
Needing future generations for social security is, by the way, the equivalent of a pyramid scheme if following the current approach. Gains in productivity eliminate a need for increasing future generation sizes. Do check out per-capita GDP productivity growth—you will see that automation solves much of this problem.
Lastly, I want to point out that I would never support death of people currently alive—and I don’t know why you would raise it. My post was clearly only about the gap of unmet contraceptive need. This is, obviously, ethically a completely different matter.
Edit: As I showed by citing several works related to the example of the Egyptian economy, a bigger population size does not actually translate into better division of labor, more scientists, and so on. It only does so if the state can grow its infrastructure and education opportunities alongside with the population. If the state can’t, then you actually have a relatively lower proportion of highly trained/skilled workforce. This phenomenon is actually well studied in several developing countries which, currently, seek to slow down their population growth because the population grows much faster than the (relatively poor) states can ensure healthy economic development and opportunities for individuals.