In my head, I’ve tended to simplify the picture into essentially the “Value Through Intent” argument vs the “Historical Harms” argument, since these seem liked the strongest arguments in either direction to me. In that framing, I lean towards the future being weakly positive.
But this post is a helpful reminder that there are various other arguments pointing in either direction (which, in my case, overall push me towards a less optimistic view). My overall view still seems pretty close to zero at the moment though.
Also interesting how wildly different each of our scores are. Partly I think this might be because I was quite confused/worried about double-counting. Also maybe just not fully grasping some of the points listed in the post.
I also put my intuitive scores into a copy of your spreadsheet.
In my head, I’ve tended to simplify the picture into essentially the “Value Through Intent” argument vs the “Historical Harms” argument, since these seem liked the strongest arguments in either direction to me. In that framing, I lean towards the future being weakly positive.
But this post is a helpful reminder that there are various other arguments pointing in either direction (which, in my case, overall push me towards a less optimistic view). My overall view still seems pretty close to zero at the moment though.
Also interesting how wildly different each of our scores are. Partly I think this might be because I was quite confused/worried about double-counting. Also maybe just not fully grasping some of the points listed in the post.