I agree restraining AGI requires “saying no” prior to deployment. In this sense, it is more similar to geo-engineering than fossil fuels: there might be no ‘fire alarm’/‘warning shot’ for either.
Though, the net-present value of AGI (as perceived by AI labs) still seems v high, evidenced by high investment in AGI firms. So, in this sense, it has similar commercial incentives for continued development as continued deployment of GMOs/fossil fuels/nuclear power. I think the GMO example might be the best as it both had strong profit incentives and no ‘warning shots’.
I agree restraining AGI requires “saying no” prior to deployment. In this sense, it is more similar to geo-engineering than fossil fuels: there might be no ‘fire alarm’/‘warning shot’ for either.
Though, the net-present value of AGI (as perceived by AI labs) still seems v high, evidenced by high investment in AGI firms. So, in this sense, it has similar commercial incentives for continued development as continued deployment of GMOs/fossil fuels/nuclear power. I think the GMO example might be the best as it both had strong profit incentives and no ‘warning shots’.