Thanks for writing this! I had one thought regarding how relevant saying no to some of the technologies you listed is to AGI.
In the case of nuclear weapons programs, the use of fossil fuels, CFCs, and GMOs, we actively used these technologies before we said no (FFs and GMOs we still use despite ‘no’, and nuclear weapons we have and could use at a moments notice). With AGI, once we start using them it might be too late. Geo-engineering experiments is the most applicable out of these, as we actually did say no before any (much?) testing was undertaken.
I agree restraining AGI requires “saying no” prior to deployment. In this sense, it is more similar to geo-engineering than fossil fuels: there might be no ‘fire alarm’/‘warning shot’ for either.
Though, the net-present value of AGI (as perceived by AI labs) still seems v high, evidenced by high investment in AGI firms. So, in this sense, it has similar commercial incentives for continued development as continued deployment of GMOs/fossil fuels/nuclear power. I think the GMO example might be the best as it both had strong profit incentives and no ‘warning shots’.
Thanks for writing this! I had one thought regarding how relevant saying no to some of the technologies you listed is to AGI.
In the case of nuclear weapons programs, the use of fossil fuels, CFCs, and GMOs, we actively used these technologies before we said no (FFs and GMOs we still use despite ‘no’, and nuclear weapons we have and could use at a moments notice). With AGI, once we start using them it might be too late. Geo-engineering experiments is the most applicable out of these, as we actually did say no before any (much?) testing was undertaken.
I agree restraining AGI requires “saying no” prior to deployment. In this sense, it is more similar to geo-engineering than fossil fuels: there might be no ‘fire alarm’/‘warning shot’ for either.
Though, the net-present value of AGI (as perceived by AI labs) still seems v high, evidenced by high investment in AGI firms. So, in this sense, it has similar commercial incentives for continued development as continued deployment of GMOs/fossil fuels/nuclear power. I think the GMO example might be the best as it both had strong profit incentives and no ‘warning shots’.