I agree that political climate is definitely important. The presence of elite allies (Swedish Democrats, President Nazarbayev), and their responsiveness to changes in public opinion was likely important. I am confident the same is true for GM protests in 1990s in Europe: decision-making was made by national governments, (who were more responsive to public perceptions than FDA in USA), and there were sympathetic Green Parties in coalition governments in France/Germany.
I agree that understanding these political dynamics for AI is vitally important – and I try to do so in the GM piece. One key reason to be pessimistic about AI protests is that there aren’t many elite political allies for a pause. I think the most plausible TOCs for AI protests, for now, is about raising public awareness/shifting the Overton Window/etc., rather than actually achieving a pause.
Hi Vaipan, I appreciate that!
I agree that political climate is definitely important. The presence of elite allies (Swedish Democrats, President Nazarbayev), and their responsiveness to changes in public opinion was likely important. I am confident the same is true for GM protests in 1990s in Europe: decision-making was made by national governments, (who were more responsive to public perceptions than FDA in USA), and there were sympathetic Green Parties in coalition governments in France/Germany.
I agree that understanding these political dynamics for AI is vitally important – and I try to do so in the GM piece. One key reason to be pessimistic about AI protests is that there aren’t many elite political allies for a pause. I think the most plausible TOCs for AI protests, for now, is about raising public awareness/shifting the Overton Window/etc., rather than actually achieving a pause.