Hey Charlie, great post—EAs tend to forget to look at the big picture, or when they do it’s very skewed or simplistic (assertions that technology has always been for the best, etc). So it’s good to get a detailed perspective on what worked and what did not.
I would simply add that there is a historical/cultural component that determines the chances of success for each protest that should not be forgotten. For example, in Sweden, a highly-functioning democracy, it’s no surprise that the government would pay attention to the protests; I’m not sure this would work for example in Iran if people were pushing against nuclear. In Kazakhstan, the political climate at the time was freer than it is now, it was the end of the Soviet Union and there was a wind of freedom and detachment from the Soviet Union that made more things possible.
Adding this component by understanding the political dynamics and the level of freedom or responsiveness of the governments towards a bottom-up level of contest would probably help in advocating or not for protests and even put money into it. EAs might not be sold on activism but if they’re shown that there’s a decent possibility of impact they might change their minds.
I agree that political climate is definitely important. The presence of elite allies (Swedish Democrats, President Nazarbayev), and their responsiveness to changes in public opinion was likely important. I am confident the same is true for GM protests in 1990s in Europe: decision-making was made by national governments, (who were more responsive to public perceptions than FDA in USA), and there were sympathetic Green Parties in coalition governments in France/Germany.
I agree that understanding these political dynamics for AI is vitally important – and I try to do so in the GM piece. One key reason to be pessimistic about AI protests is that there aren’t many elite political allies for a pause. I think the most plausible TOCs for AI protests, for now, is about raising public awareness/shifting the Overton Window/etc., rather than actually achieving a pause.
Hey Charlie, great post—EAs tend to forget to look at the big picture, or when they do it’s very skewed or simplistic (assertions that technology has always been for the best, etc). So it’s good to get a detailed perspective on what worked and what did not.
I would simply add that there is a historical/cultural component that determines the chances of success for each protest that should not be forgotten. For example, in Sweden, a highly-functioning democracy, it’s no surprise that the government would pay attention to the protests; I’m not sure this would work for example in Iran if people were pushing against nuclear. In Kazakhstan, the political climate at the time was freer than it is now, it was the end of the Soviet Union and there was a wind of freedom and detachment from the Soviet Union that made more things possible.
Adding this component by understanding the political dynamics and the level of freedom or responsiveness of the governments towards a bottom-up level of contest would probably help in advocating or not for protests and even put money into it. EAs might not be sold on activism but if they’re shown that there’s a decent possibility of impact they might change their minds.
Hi Vaipan, I appreciate that!
I agree that political climate is definitely important. The presence of elite allies (Swedish Democrats, President Nazarbayev), and their responsiveness to changes in public opinion was likely important. I am confident the same is true for GM protests in 1990s in Europe: decision-making was made by national governments, (who were more responsive to public perceptions than FDA in USA), and there were sympathetic Green Parties in coalition governments in France/Germany.
I agree that understanding these political dynamics for AI is vitally important – and I try to do so in the GM piece. One key reason to be pessimistic about AI protests is that there aren’t many elite political allies for a pause. I think the most plausible TOCs for AI protests, for now, is about raising public awareness/shifting the Overton Window/etc., rather than actually achieving a pause.