Thanks for the post, James. It made sense to me.
I worked at HM Treasury
This is “the Government of the United Kingdom’s economic and finance ministry”.
The real value of forecasting is in the moment you realise two people in the same room have forecasts 40% apart.
You mean 40 pp apart?
Yeah 40pp, though 40% difference may also be informative depending on the question and distribution. Regardless, “40” was just a random number. Basically the interesting thing are the areas of greatest difference, not the probability itself.
Thanks for the post, James. It made sense to me.
This is “the Government of the United Kingdom’s economic and finance ministry”.
You mean 40 pp apart?
Yeah 40pp, though 40% difference may also be informative depending on the question and distribution.
Regardless, “40” was just a random number. Basically the interesting thing are the areas of greatest difference, not the probability itself.