I think this is a clear sign the community hasn’t been able to communicate its use case well at all. This is one reason I often use “predictive reasoning” as a more general concept when talking to people, interestingly especially if they are already aware of forecasting (as they’ve been conditioned to think it means prediction markets, tournaments, and resolution criteria).
Take your example of animal welfare, I don’t know the exact use case best aligned to you, but fundamentally i’m confident 95%+ of the decisions an animal nonprofit will make are based on two predictions:
1) What will the world be like in the future (insert timeline)?
2) What interventions will most impact/change that future closer to what you’d like it to be?
Forecasting, or more specifically, the processes that underpins the science of forecasting, can be used to increase the accuracy and efficiency of those two predictions.
Once you do that, a better estimation of the future world + a better estimation of the efficacy of your actions, will occur.
I think this is a clear sign the community hasn’t been able to communicate its use case well at all. This is one reason I often use “predictive reasoning” as a more general concept when talking to people, interestingly especially if they are already aware of forecasting (as they’ve been conditioned to think it means prediction markets, tournaments, and resolution criteria).
Take your example of animal welfare, I don’t know the exact use case best aligned to you, but fundamentally i’m confident 95%+ of the decisions an animal nonprofit will make are based on two predictions:
1) What will the world be like in the future (insert timeline)?
2) What interventions will most impact/change that future closer to what you’d like it to be?
Forecasting, or more specifically, the processes that underpins the science of forecasting, can be used to increase the accuracy and efficiency of those two predictions.
Once you do that, a better estimation of the future world + a better estimation of the efficacy of your actions, will occur.
Yes, makes sense, shorter or longer AI timelines do change the game a lot, for instance.