I was considering hypothetical scenarios of the type “imagine this offer from MIRI arrived, would a lab accept”
When would the offer from MIRI arrive in the hypothetical scenario? I am sceptical of an honest endorsement from MIRI today being worth 3 billion $, but I do not have a good sense of what MIRI will look like in the future. I would also agree a full-proof AI safety certification is or will be worth more than 3 billion $ depending on how it is defined.
With your bets about timelines—I did 8:1 bet with Daniel Kokotajlo against AI 2027 being as accurate as his previous forecast, so not sure which side of the “confident about short timelines” do you expect I should take.
I was guessing I would have longer timelines. What is your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus?
When would the offer from MIRI arrive in the hypothetical scenario? I am sceptical of an honest endorsement from MIRI today being worth 3 billion $, but I do not have a good sense of what MIRI will look like in the future. I would also agree a full-proof AI safety certification is or will be worth more than 3 billion $ depending on how it is defined.
I was guessing I would have longer timelines. What is your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus?