I was considering hypothetical scenarios of the type “imagine this offer from MIRI arrived, would a lab accept” ; clearly MIRI is not making the offer because the labs don’t have good alignment plans and they are obviously high integrity enough to not be corrupted by relatively tiny incentives like $3b
I would guess there are ways to operationalise the hypothethicals, and try to have, for example, Dan Hendrycks guess what would xAI do, him being an advisor.
With your bets about timelines—I did 8:1 bet with Daniel Kokotajlo against AI 2027 being as accurate as his previous forecast, so not sure which side of the “confident about short timelines” do you expect I should take. I’m happy to bet on some operationalization of your overall thinking and posting about the topic of AGI being bad, e.g. something like “3 smartest available AIs in 2035 compare all what we wrote in 2026 on EAF, LW and Twitter about AI and judge who was more confused, overconfident and miscalibrated”.
I was considering hypothetical scenarios of the type “imagine this offer from MIRI arrived, would a lab accept”
When would the offer from MIRI arrive in the hypothetical scenario? I am sceptical of an honest endorsement from MIRI today being worth 3 billion $, but I do not have a good sense of what MIRI will look like in the future. I would also agree a full-proof AI safety certification is or will be worth more than 3 billion $ depending on how it is defined.
With your bets about timelines—I did 8:1 bet with Daniel Kokotajlo against AI 2027 being as accurate as his previous forecast, so not sure which side of the “confident about short timelines” do you expect I should take.
I was guessing I would have longer timelines. What is your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus?
I was considering hypothetical scenarios of the type “imagine this offer from MIRI arrived, would a lab accept” ; clearly MIRI is not making the offer because the labs don’t have good alignment plans and they are obviously high integrity enough to not be corrupted by relatively tiny incentives like $3b
I would guess there are ways to operationalise the hypothethicals, and try to have, for example, Dan Hendrycks guess what would xAI do, him being an advisor.
With your bets about timelines—I did 8:1 bet with Daniel Kokotajlo against AI 2027 being as accurate as his previous forecast, so not sure which side of the “confident about short timelines” do you expect I should take. I’m happy to bet on some operationalization of your overall thinking and posting about the topic of AGI being bad, e.g. something like “3 smartest available AIs in 2035 compare all what we wrote in 2026 on EAF, LW and Twitter about AI and judge who was more confused, overconfident and miscalibrated”.
When would the offer from MIRI arrive in the hypothetical scenario? I am sceptical of an honest endorsement from MIRI today being worth 3 billion $, but I do not have a good sense of what MIRI will look like in the future. I would also agree a full-proof AI safety certification is or will be worth more than 3 billion $ depending on how it is defined.
I was guessing I would have longer timelines. What is your median date of superintelligent AI as defined by Metaculus?