“very obviously their direct experience with thinking and working with existing AIs would be worth > $1M pa if evaluated anonymously based on understanding SOTA AIs, and likely >$10s M pa if they worked on capabilities.”
“Y&S endorsing some effort as good would likely have something between billions $ to tens of billions $ value.”
fwiw both of these claims strike me as close to nonsense, so I don’t think this is a helpful reaction.
If you ask the AIs they get numbers in the tens of millions to tens of billions range, with around 1 billion being the central estimate. (I haven’t extensively controlled for the effect and some calculations appear driven by narrative)
Personally I find it hard to judge and tend to lean no when trying to think it through, but it’s not obviously nonsense.
“very obviously their direct experience with thinking and working with existing AIs would be worth > $1M pa if evaluated anonymously based on understanding SOTA AIs, and likely >$10s M pa if they worked on capabilities.”
“Y&S endorsing some effort as good would likely have something between billions $ to tens of billions $ value.”
fwiw both of these claims strike me as close to nonsense, so I don’t think this is a helpful reaction.
If you ask the AIs they get numbers in the tens of millions to tens of billions range, with around 1 billion being the central estimate. (I haven’t extensively controlled for the effect and some calculations appear driven by narrative)
Personally I find it hard to judge and tend to lean no when trying to think it through, but it’s not obviously nonsense.