Still interested in something like this, though might punt on it for a month or two (busy times)
Ok. I will remind you about this in 1.5 months (June 22).
If you know your numbers that would help—e.g. it sounds like you could suggest numbers that are a good deal to you, but also sound like an obviously good deal to me, despite my less-clear picture? You could also hash that if desired until I come back :P
I think the probability of human extinction this century is much lower than 1 %. I guess the probability of you not paying me back for reasons that do not have to do with transformative AI (TAI), which I speculate would be around 25 % for a bet resolving at the end of 2034, is much higher than the probability of human extinction, or additional income no longer being relevant.
Ok. I will remind you about this in 1.5 months (June 22).
I think the probability of human extinction this century is much lower than 1 %. I guess the probability of you not paying me back for reasons that do not have to do with transformative AI (TAI), which I speculate would be around 25 % for a bet resolving at the end of 2034, is much higher than the probability of human extinction, or additional income no longer being relevant.