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Trans­for­ma­tive ar­tifi­cial intelligence

TagLast edit: 19 Apr 2023 21:20 UTC by Pablo

Transformative artificial intelligence (TAI) is artificial intelligence that constitutes a transformative development, i.e. a development at least as significant as the agricultural or industrial revolutions.[1]

Further reading

Gruetzemacher, Ross & Jess Whittlestone (2022) The transformative potential of artificial intelligence, Futures, vol. 135.

Karnofsky, Holden (2016) Some background on our views regarding advanced artificial intelligence, Open Philanthropy, May 6, section 1.

Related entries

AI governance | AI safety | economics of artificial intelligence | superintelligence | transformative development

  1. ^

    For a brief review of existing definitions in the literature, see Gruetzemacher, Ross & Jess Whittlestone (2022) The transformative potential of artificial intelligence, Futures, vol. 135, pp. 2–3.

Prevent­ing an AI-re­lated catas­tro­phe—Prob­lem profile

Benjamin Hilton29 Aug 2022 18:49 UTC
133 points
17 comments4 min readEA link
(80000hours.org)

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI: Are we “trend­ing to­ward” trans­for­ma­tive AI? (How would we know?)

Holden Karnofsky24 Aug 2021 17:15 UTC
56 points
12 comments10 min readEA link

Will scal­ing work?

Vasco Grilo4 Feb 2024 9:29 UTC
18 points
1 comment12 min readEA link
(www.dwarkeshpatel.com)

Two con­trast­ing mod­els of “in­tel­li­gence” and fu­ture growth

Magnus Vinding24 Nov 2022 11:54 UTC
74 points
32 comments22 min readEA link

Non-al­ign­ment pro­ject ideas for mak­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI go well

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:23 UTC
63 points
1 comment3 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

The longter­mist AI gov­er­nance land­scape: a ba­sic overview

Sam Clarke18 Jan 2022 12:58 UTC
157 points
12 comments9 min readEA link

Clar­ify­ing and pre­dict­ing AGI

richard_ngo4 May 2023 15:56 UTC
69 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

FLI launches Wor­ld­build­ing Con­test with $100,000 in prizes

ggilgallon17 Jan 2022 13:54 UTC
87 points
55 comments6 min readEA link

Liter­a­ture re­view of Trans­for­ma­tive Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence timelines

Jaime Sevilla27 Jan 2023 20:36 UTC
148 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Jaime Sevilla27 Jun 2022 13:39 UTC
183 points
11 comments2 min readEA link
(epochai.org)

A Map to Nav­i­gate AI Governance

hanadulset14 Feb 2022 22:41 UTC
72 points
11 comments24 min readEA link

Here are the fi­nal­ists from FLI’s $100K Wor­ld­build­ing Contest

Jackson Wagner6 Jun 2022 18:42 UTC
44 points
5 comments2 min readEA link

Is Democ­racy a Fad?

bgarfinkel13 Mar 2021 12:40 UTC
149 points
36 comments7 min readEA link

How tech­ni­cal safety stan­dards could pro­mote TAI safety

Cullen8 Aug 2022 16:57 UTC
127 points
15 comments7 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: the “biolog­i­cal an­chors” method in a nutshell

Holden Karnofsky31 Aug 2021 18:17 UTC
50 points
13 comments18 min readEA link

Law-Fol­low­ing AI 3: Lawless AI Agents Un­der­mine Sta­bi­liz­ing Agreements

Cullen27 Apr 2022 17:20 UTC
28 points
3 comments3 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI: what’s the bur­den of proof?

Holden Karnofsky17 Aug 2021 17:14 UTC
71 points
17 comments16 min readEA link

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI: What Kind of AI?

Holden Karnofsky10 Aug 2021 21:38 UTC
62 points
3 comments10 min readEA link

[Question] What work has been done on the post-AGI dis­tri­bu­tion of wealth?

tlevin6 Jul 2022 18:59 UTC
16 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

AI Timelines: Where the Ar­gu­ments, and the “Ex­perts,” Stand

Holden Karnofsky7 Sep 2021 17:35 UTC
88 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Law-Fol­low­ing AI 2: In­tent Align­ment + Su­per­in­tel­li­gence → Lawless AI (By De­fault)

Cullen27 Apr 2022 17:18 UTC
19 points
0 comments6 min readEA link

Gen­eral vs spe­cific ar­gu­ments for the longter­mist im­por­tance of shap­ing AI development

Sam Clarke15 Oct 2021 14:43 UTC
44 points
7 comments2 min readEA link

A per­sonal take on longter­mist AI governance

lukeprog16 Jul 2021 22:08 UTC
173 points
6 comments7 min readEA link

[Question] Is trans­for­ma­tive AI the biggest ex­is­ten­tial risk? Why or why not?

BrownHairedEevee5 Mar 2022 3:54 UTC
9 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Law-Fol­low­ing AI 1: Se­quence In­tro­duc­tion and Structure

Cullen27 Apr 2022 17:16 UTC
35 points
2 comments9 min readEA link

It takes 5 lay­ers and 1000 ar­tifi­cial neu­rons to simu­late a sin­gle biolog­i­cal neu­ron [Link]

MichaelStJules7 Sep 2021 21:53 UTC
44 points
17 comments2 min readEA link

All Pos­si­ble Views About Hu­man­ity’s Fu­ture Are Wild

Holden Karnofsky13 Jul 2021 16:57 UTC
217 points
47 comments8 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

[Question] Do EA folks want AGI at all?

Noah Scales16 Jul 2022 5:44 UTC
8 points
10 comments1 min readEA link

Seek­ing Sur­vey Re­sponses—At­ti­tudes Towards AI risks

anson28 Mar 2022 17:47 UTC
23 points
2 comments1 min readEA link
(forms.gle)

Large Lan­guage Models as Cor­po­rate Lob­by­ists, and Im­pli­ca­tions for So­cietal-AI Alignment

johnjnay4 Jan 2023 22:22 UTC
10 points
6 comments8 min readEA link

[Question] Will the vast ma­jor­ity of tech­nolog­i­cal progress hap­pen in the longterm fu­ture?

Vasco Grilo8 Jul 2023 8:40 UTC
8 points
0 comments2 min readEA link

Sparks of Ar­tifi­cial Gen­eral In­tel­li­gence: Early ex­per­i­ments with GPT-4 | Microsoft Research

𝕮𝖎𝖓𝖊𝖗𝖆23 Mar 2023 5:45 UTC
15 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

Semi-con­duc­tor /​ AI stocks dis­cus­sion.

sapphire25 Nov 2022 23:35 UTC
10 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

The Prospect of an AI Winter

Erich_Grunewald27 Mar 2023 20:55 UTC
56 points
13 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Which stocks or ETFs should you in­vest in to take ad­van­tage of a pos­si­ble AGI ex­plo­sion, and why?

BrownHairedEevee10 Apr 2023 17:55 UTC
19 points
16 comments1 min readEA link

[Question] Is there EA dis­cus­sion on non-x-risk trans­for­ma­tive AI?

Franziska Fischer26 Apr 2023 13:50 UTC
5 points
0 comments1 min readEA link

We don’t need AGI for an amaz­ing future

Karl von Wendt4 May 2023 12:11 UTC
57 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

Pro­ject ideas: Gover­nance dur­ing ex­plo­sive tech­nolog­i­cal growth

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:25 UTC
19 points
1 comment16 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Pro­ject ideas: Epistemics

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:26 UTC
34 points
1 comment17 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Pro­ject ideas: Backup plans & Co­op­er­a­tive AI

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:26 UTC
17 points
1 comment13 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Pro­ject ideas: Sen­tience and rights of digi­tal minds

Lukas Finnveden4 Jan 2024 7:26 UTC
26 points
1 comment20 min readEA link
(lukasfinnveden.substack.com)

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart1 Oct 2021 8:25 UTC
39 points
6 comments19 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Tutte le pos­si­bili con­clu­sioni sul fu­turo dell’uman­ità sono incredibili

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 14:59 UTC
1 point
0 comments8 min readEA link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:54 UTC
48 points
6 comments18 min readEA link

[Question] Re­quest for As­sis­tance—Re­search on Sce­nario Devel­op­ment for Ad­vanced AI Risk

Kiliank30 Mar 2022 3:01 UTC
2 points
1 comment1 min readEA link

Eco­nomic growth un­der trans­for­ma­tive AI

Global Priorities Institute3 Feb 2021 14:31 UTC
3 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(globalprioritiesinstitute.org)

The Du­pli­ca­tor: In­stant Clon­ing Would Make the World Econ­omy Explode

Holden Karnofsky20 Jul 2021 16:41 UTC
88 points
6 comments6 min readEA link

Le Tem­p­is­tiche delle IA: il di­bat­tito e il punto di vista degli “es­perti”

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 23:30 UTC
1 point
0 comments11 min readEA link

[Opz­ionale] Il panorama della gov­er­nance lun­goter­minista delle in­tel­li­genze artificiali

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 11:03 UTC
1 point
0 comments10 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is­sues (not just mis­al­ign­ment): an overview

Holden Karnofsky6 Jan 2023 2:19 UTC
31 points
0 comments22 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

How we could stum­ble into AI catastrophe

Holden Karnofsky16 Jan 2023 14:52 UTC
78 points
0 comments31 min readEA link
(www.cold-takes.com)

Red-team­ing Holden Karnofsky’s AI timelines

Vasco Grilo25 Jun 2022 14:24 UTC
58 points
2 comments11 min readEA link

Mak­ing of #IAN

kirchner.jan29 Aug 2021 16:24 UTC
9 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(universalprior.substack.com)

England & Wales & Windfalls

John Bridge3 Jun 2022 10:26 UTC
13 points
1 comment26 min readEA link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 7:55 UTC
20 points
3 comments5 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute—Read­ing List

Frederik Berg4 Sep 2023 6:21 UTC
24 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(docs.google.com)

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Ex­plo­ra­tory Sce­nario Map­ping for Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion [Linkpost]

Kiliank9 May 2022 19:53 UTC
17 points
2 comments8 min readEA link

A Brief Sum­mary Of The Most Im­por­tant Century

Maynk0225 Oct 2022 15:28 UTC
3 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

Epoch is hiring a Re­search Data Analyst

merilalama22 Nov 2022 17:34 UTC
21 points
0 comments4 min readEA link
(careers.rethinkpriorities.org)

The Ter­minol­ogy of Ar­tifi­cial Sentience

Janet Pauketat28 Nov 2021 7:52 UTC
29 points
0 comments1 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

[Link Post] In­ter­est­ing shal­low round-up of rea­sons to be skep­ti­cal that trans­for­ma­tive AI or ex­plo­sive eco­nomic growth are com­ing soon

David Mathers28 Jun 2023 19:49 UTC
31 points
8 comments17 min readEA link
(thegradient.pub)

Prevenire una catas­trofe legata all’in­tel­li­genza artificiale

EA Italy17 Jan 2023 11:07 UTC
1 point
0 comments3 min readEA link

Public Opinion on AI Safety: AIMS 2023 and 2021 Summary

Janet Pauketat25 Sep 2023 18:09 UTC
19 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

[Question] Please Share Your Per­spec­tives on the De­gree of So­cietal Im­pact from Trans­for­ma­tive AI Outcomes

Kiliank15 Apr 2022 1:23 UTC
3 points
3 comments1 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Sce­nario Plan­ning for AI X-risk

Elliot Mckernon22 Mar 2024 11:44 UTC
11 points
1 comment8 min readEA link

Sce­nario Map­ping Ad­vanced AI Risk: Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion with Data Collection

Kiliank27 Mar 2022 11:44 UTC
14 points
0 comments5 min readEA link

‘Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Gover­nance un­der Change’ (PhD dis­ser­ta­tion)

MMMaas15 Sep 2022 12:10 UTC
54 points
1 comment2 min readEA link
(drive.google.com)

Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence, Mo­ral­ity, and Sen­tience (AIMS) Sur­vey: 2021

Janet Pauketat1 Jul 2022 7:47 UTC
36 points
0 comments2 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Without spe­cific coun­ter­mea­sures, the eas­iest path to trans­for­ma­tive AI likely leads to AI takeover

Ajeya18 Jul 2022 19:07 UTC
217 points
12 comments75 min readEA link
(www.lesswrong.com)

New Se­quence—Towards a wor­ld­wide, wa­ter­tight Wind­fall Clause

John Bridge7 Apr 2022 15:02 UTC
25 points
4 comments8 min readEA link

When Will We Spend Enough to Train Trans­for­ma­tive AI

Skye Nygaard28 Mar 2023 0:41 UTC
3 points
0 comments9 min readEA link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart23 Sep 2021 13:53 UTC
59 points
5 comments9 min readEA link

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:18 UTC
18 points
2 comments1 min readEA link

In­trin­sic limi­ta­tions of GPT-4 and other large lan­guage mod­els, and why I’m not (very) wor­ried about GPT-n

Fods123 Jun 2023 13:09 UTC
28 points
3 comments11 min readEA link

Data Publi­ca­tion for the 2021 Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence, Mo­ral­ity, and Sen­tience (AIMS) Sur­vey

Janet Pauketat24 Mar 2022 15:43 UTC
21 points
0 comments3 min readEA link
(www.sentienceinstitute.org)

Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence as exit strat­egy from the age of acute ex­is­ten­tial risk

Arturo Macias12 Apr 2023 14:41 UTC
9 points
11 comments7 min readEA link
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