Thanks Mac, I agree that’s the general direction this should go given success with this initial trial (and the lessons from actually doing it), and hope there is a good option for you in future (the current lottery is closed for the last few days pre-draw). That organization may or may not be GiveWell, although they are certainly aware of it.
6 of the 18 participants are GiveWell employees (including Open Philanthropy Project staff), one is a former GiveWell employee, and one is an advisor to the Open Philanthropy Project (as are Paul Christiano and myself).
We also (with the consent of the participants) rescaled the win probabilities and payout recommendation to guarantee a winner (who can then make a second bet to get from $45,600 to $100,000), so as to ensure we can learn from that process too before trying a bigger institutional version. See Paul’s recent follow-up post.
So I’m hopeful something along the lines you suggest can be managed in future (although this round is closed now).
Thanks Mac, I agree that’s the general direction this should go given success with this initial trial (and the lessons from actually doing it), and hope there is a good option for you in future (the current lottery is closed for the last few days pre-draw). That organization may or may not be GiveWell, although they are certainly aware of it.
6 of the 18 participants are GiveWell employees (including Open Philanthropy Project staff), one is a former GiveWell employee, and one is an advisor to the Open Philanthropy Project (as are Paul Christiano and myself).
Holden Karnofsky wrote favorably about it in the GiveWell blog post on staff members’ personal donations, along with Tim, Ajeya, and Helen (the latter 3 participated).
We also (with the consent of the participants) rescaled the win probabilities and payout recommendation to guarantee a winner (who can then make a second bet to get from $45,600 to $100,000), so as to ensure we can learn from that process too before trying a bigger institutional version. See Paul’s recent follow-up post.
So I’m hopeful something along the lines you suggest can be managed in future (although this round is closed now).