Conditioning on the alien intelligence being responsible for recent UFO/UAP discussions/evidence, then they are more advanced than us. If they are more advanced than us, they are most likely much more advanced than us (e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
Also could be selection effects. We may not be the first other civilization they encounter, so for them to make it to us, they may have had to successfully navigate or defeat other alien civilizations, which we have not had to do yet.
So I agree that this is a good point and selection will definitely apply but I feel like I still don’t quite agree with the phrasing (though it is sort of nitpicky).
>For them to make it to us
The original reason I asked op the question was that I don’t understand why there is a higher chance they make it to us vs we make it to them. We should start by taking a prior something like 50⁄50 of us discovering/reaching a civ vs them discovering us. Then, If we are early, we are much more likely to encounter than be encountered.
Any thoughts on how many ICs we expect a civ that makes it to us to have encountered before us?
I think op is correct in their point but missing half the argument.
>(e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
This is basically correct but it goes both ways. If we hit aliens, or they hit us, and we have not both maxed out all of our stats and are in the late game, then almost certainly one civ will be way more advanced than the other, and so prepratory war planning just isn’t going to cut it. However if we think we are super likely to get wiped by aliens we can try to increase economic growth rates and that would make a difference.
We have not had any conflicts with any interstellar civilizations (ICs?) yet, so the first we have to deal with can’t have had fewer conflicts with other interstellar civilizations than us, only a) the same as us (0), which counts in favour of neither of us, or b) more than us (>0), which counts towards their advantage. So our prior should be that they have an advantage in expectation.
Why do you think that alien intelligence (that we encounter) will be much more technologically advanced than us?
Conditioning on the alien intelligence being responsible for recent UFO/UAP discussions/evidence, then they are more advanced than us. If they are more advanced than us, they are most likely much more advanced than us (e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
Wait I’m not sure I understand what you are saying. There is credible recent evidence of UFO’s?
Otherwise it seems like you are conditioning away the question.
To me it seems there is, yes. For instance, see this Harvard professor and this Stanford professor talk about aliens.
Awesome, I’ll definitely check out out the links.
Also could be selection effects. We may not be the first other civilization they encounter, so for them to make it to us, they may have had to successfully navigate or defeat other alien civilizations, which we have not had to do yet.
So I agree that this is a good point and selection will definitely apply but I feel like I still don’t quite agree with the phrasing (though it is sort of nitpicky).
>For them to make it to us
The original reason I asked op the question was that I don’t understand why there is a higher chance they make it to us vs we make it to them. We should start by taking a prior something like 50⁄50 of us discovering/reaching a civ vs them discovering us. Then, If we are early, we are much more likely to encounter than be encountered.
Any thoughts on how many ICs we expect a civ that makes it to us to have encountered before us?
I think op is correct in their point but missing half the argument.
>(e.g. the difference between now and 1 AD on earth is cosmologically very small, but technologically pretty big)
This is basically correct but it goes both ways. If we hit aliens, or they hit us, and we have not both maxed out all of our stats and are in the late game, then almost certainly one civ will be way more advanced than the other, and so prepratory war planning just isn’t going to cut it. However if we think we are super likely to get wiped by aliens we can try to increase economic growth rates and that would make a difference.
We have not had any conflicts with any interstellar civilizations (ICs?) yet, so the first we have to deal with can’t have had fewer conflicts with other interstellar civilizations than us, only a) the same as us (0), which counts in favour of neither of us, or b) more than us (>0), which counts towards their advantage. So our prior should be that they have an advantage in expectation.