I think the LW audience may be interested in this as well, so consider cross-posting there
While I don’t think this will change your (pretty unobjectionable) bottomline conclusion that “the limit of computation is far above all humans combined”, I’d be curious to know if you’ve considered other approaches to estimating the theoretical computational limit of the solar system, and how those BOTECs would compare to your current approach (in the spirit of how Ajeya Cotra considered 4 different anchors in her report for estimating training computation requirements for a “transformative” model, and arrived at a pretty wide range)
Same question for estimating the computational ability of all humans alive. In particular you may want to check out Open Philanthropy’s 2020 report How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? (see chart below from the report for how widely the numbers can range)
Come to think of it, if the idea is to show that the “limit of computation is far above all humans combined”, you may be interested in a computation efficiency-oriented perspective (e.g. normalizing by power consumption), in which case Robert Freitas’ sentience quotient may interest you (scroll down to the last section). Seth Lloyd’s ultimate laptop calculations may interest you as well
Considering instead the perspective of “ultimate brains”, you may be interested in Anders Sandberg’s The physics of information processing superobjects: daily life among the Jupiter brains, in particular his calculations w.r.t. the physics and engineering constraints guiding the design specs for Dyson brains, Jupiter brains and “neutronium” brains
Good thought, I’ve cross-posted it to my account there.
This post was spurred by a conversation I had about the upper limit of AI intelligence and the fact that it was likely very far above all humans combined. This is meant as, like you said, a pretty unobjectionable support for my then assumed conclusion. The conversion was heavily influenced by Cotra’s Bioanchors report.
I was estimating the brains computation ability very roughly. I guessed that there would be more detailed estimations already done, but would take time to read through and understand their premises. I’ll read through the document when I have some time.
These two look interesting to read.
Anders Sandberg is an interesting person. I speculated someone had done calculations similar to mine, I’m not surprised that he is one of such people.
Yeah, your initial guess was right that more detailed estimations had already been done. I figured the reason you posted your rough BOTEC was to invite others to refer you to those more detailed estimates (saves time on your end via crowdsourcing too), since I’ve done the same as well in the past, hence the shares :) Happy reading
Hi William, interesting post :) Some reactions:
I think the LW audience may be interested in this as well, so consider cross-posting there
While I don’t think this will change your (pretty unobjectionable) bottomline conclusion that “the limit of computation is far above all humans combined”, I’d be curious to know if you’ve considered other approaches to estimating the theoretical computational limit of the solar system, and how those BOTECs would compare to your current approach (in the spirit of how Ajeya Cotra considered 4 different anchors in her report for estimating training computation requirements for a “transformative” model, and arrived at a pretty wide range)
Same question for estimating the computational ability of all humans alive. In particular you may want to check out Open Philanthropy’s 2020 report How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain? (see chart below from the report for how widely the numbers can range)
Come to think of it, if the idea is to show that the “limit of computation is far above all humans combined”, you may be interested in a computation efficiency-oriented perspective (e.g. normalizing by power consumption), in which case Robert Freitas’ sentience quotient may interest you (scroll down to the last section). Seth Lloyd’s ultimate laptop calculations may interest you as well
Considering instead the perspective of “ultimate brains”, you may be interested in Anders Sandberg’s The physics of information processing superobjects: daily life among the Jupiter brains, in particular his calculations w.r.t. the physics and engineering constraints guiding the design specs for Dyson brains, Jupiter brains and “neutronium” brains
Happy reading :)
Hi Mo, thanks for the feedback.
Good thought, I’ve cross-posted it to my account there.
This post was spurred by a conversation I had about the upper limit of AI intelligence and the fact that it was likely very far above all humans combined. This is meant as, like you said, a pretty unobjectionable support for my then assumed conclusion. The conversion was heavily influenced by Cotra’s Bioanchors report.
I was estimating the brains computation ability very roughly. I guessed that there would be more detailed estimations already done, but would take time to read through and understand their premises. I’ll read through the document when I have some time.
These two look interesting to read.
Anders Sandberg is an interesting person. I speculated someone had done calculations similar to mine, I’m not surprised that he is one of such people.
Yeah, your initial guess was right that more detailed estimations had already been done. I figured the reason you posted your rough BOTEC was to invite others to refer you to those more detailed estimates (saves time on your end via crowdsourcing too), since I’ve done the same as well in the past, hence the shares :) Happy reading
An efficient idea, good thinking.