That’s an interesting and unusual argument for progress:
Progress so far has brought us to a point where we are causing so much harm on a global scale that the value of each year is large and negative. But pushing on further with progress is a good thing because it will help end this negative period.
That could well be correct, though it is also very different from the usual case by proponents of progress.
Yeah, agree this isn’t the usual argument from pro-progress people, who tend to be optimists who wouldn’t agree that current civilisation does more harm than good.
And yeah, my second bullet point is clearest when the end of factory farming is endogenous rather than exogenous. In the exogenous case it’s more confusing because I see progress pulling in both directions: in general, larger populations and more prosperity seem likely to increase economic demand for factory farms, and on the other hand, better alternatives in combination with social and political advocacy have the potential to decrease the number of animals used.
In the presence of exogenous ends, I suppose the track-skipping condition is precisely that the next track is worse than the track that (if you don’t skip) would have played but is stopped at the time of the exogenous event. In the specific case of factory farming, it’s not obvious to me what to expect in terms of which one is better.
Yes, that’s right about the track-skipping condition for the exogenous case, and I agree that there is a strong case the end of factory farming will be endogenous. I think it is a good sign that the structure of my model represents some/all of the key considerations in your take on progress too — but with the different assumption about the current value changing the ultimate conclusion.
That’s an interesting and unusual argument for progress:
Progress so far has brought us to a point where we are causing so much harm on a global scale that the value of each year is large and negative. But pushing on further with progress is a good thing because it will help end this negative period.
That could well be correct, though it is also very different from the usual case by proponents of progress.
Yeah, agree this isn’t the usual argument from pro-progress people, who tend to be optimists who wouldn’t agree that current civilisation does more harm than good.
And yeah, my second bullet point is clearest when the end of factory farming is endogenous rather than exogenous. In the exogenous case it’s more confusing because I see progress pulling in both directions: in general, larger populations and more prosperity seem likely to increase economic demand for factory farms, and on the other hand, better alternatives in combination with social and political advocacy have the potential to decrease the number of animals used.
In the presence of exogenous ends, I suppose the track-skipping condition is precisely that the next track is worse than the track that (if you don’t skip) would have played but is stopped at the time of the exogenous event. In the specific case of factory farming, it’s not obvious to me what to expect in terms of which one is better.
Yes, that’s right about the track-skipping condition for the exogenous case, and I agree that there is a strong case the end of factory farming will be endogenous. I think it is a good sign that the structure of my model represents some/all of the key considerations in your take on progress too — but with the different assumption about the current value changing the ultimate conclusion.