On 1--3, I definitely agree that I may prudentially prefer some possibilities than others. I’ve been assuming that from a consequentialist moral perspective the distribution of future outcomes still looks like the one I give in this post, but I guess it should actually look quite different. (I think what’s going on is that in some sense I don’t really believe in world A, so haven’t explored the ramifications properly.)
4 is a great point, thanks.
On 1--3, I definitely agree that I may prudentially prefer some possibilities than others. I’ve been assuming that from a consequentialist moral perspective the distribution of future outcomes still looks like the one I give in this post, but I guess it should actually look quite different. (I think what’s going on is that in some sense I don’t really believe in world A, so haven’t explored the ramifications properly.)