Fwiw, I think this kind of thinking is good but shows a deep need for synthesis. There is so much to read on the forum and we are poor at succinctly nailing down exactly what we thinking on areas where we basically agree or there is little disagreement.
As an example, most people do not have detailed maps of the sea but on our maps we agree where it is. This is because the exact location of the sea is not important or widely agreed. If every person making a map of their town needed to draw all of the sea, that would be a big waste of time.
Similarly, due to the main form of community knowledge transfer being blogs, there is little “things we all agree on”, so many blogs end up covering ground covered in other blogs, because the authors or readers haven’t read them (because there is too much to read).
The solution might seem to be more overviews from elites, but while I think elites make better choices on average I think that knowledge synthesis requires back and forth. I am much more likely to engage with what “we as a community think” if I feel like if a large chunk of the community disagreed then it would change.
Here, for instance, I think the push for longtermism was shorter than being the defining cause of this period.
To put it more concretely I think what the community should be is a job for elites, but what it is and currently believes is a job for some other process. I think we do not have that process and so everyone has to read way too much and write blogs that cover old ground. We have discussions many times without making ground because we can’t focus on actual areas of disagreement.
This post is a partial solution—giving clear models of who we were and are—humans need narratives to move forward. But this process seems underrated—if all you have is the agreement of what the second wave was, then there is a lot of work needed to be done by current EAs to understand what typical EAs like themselves think and do. As humans that’s a pretty good sign of what is safe to do. If we had a way to agree this information quicker, I would have more brain space for work, actual substantive disagreements etc and more trust that the community could come to concensus here.
As a more sassy point here I’ll say something like “we talk a great game about how we want to improve the world and have billions in resources but seem to have a very immature understanding of ourselves as a community”.
It seems to me either we should have a lower opinion of ourselves or we should do some community introspection. If as a community we were a person, this level of reflection/synthesis seems more like that of a child than of a mature and well-integrated adult.
Who are we, what do we want, what do we fear, how do we deal with trauma, how do we change our minds? All of these are questions that a mature person can answer, that a reckless and powerful youth might not. I think we are closer to the latter than we think.
This is my weak view, not some kind of median view. Unless it gets lots of upvotes, in which case...
Fwiw, I think this kind of thinking is good but shows a deep need for synthesis. There is so much to read on the forum and we are poor at succinctly nailing down exactly what we thinking on areas where we basically agree or there is little disagreement.
As an example, most people do not have detailed maps of the sea but on our maps we agree where it is. This is because the exact location of the sea is not important or widely agreed. If every person making a map of their town needed to draw all of the sea, that would be a big waste of time.
Similarly, due to the main form of community knowledge transfer being blogs, there is little “things we all agree on”, so many blogs end up covering ground covered in other blogs, because the authors or readers haven’t read them (because there is too much to read).
The solution might seem to be more overviews from elites, but while I think elites make better choices on average I think that knowledge synthesis requires back and forth. I am much more likely to engage with what “we as a community think” if I feel like if a large chunk of the community disagreed then it would change.
Here, for instance, I think the push for longtermism was shorter than being the defining cause of this period.
To put it more concretely I think what the community should be is a job for elites, but what it is and currently believes is a job for some other process. I think we do not have that process and so everyone has to read way too much and write blogs that cover old ground. We have discussions many times without making ground because we can’t focus on actual areas of disagreement.
This post is a partial solution—giving clear models of who we were and are—humans need narratives to move forward. But this process seems underrated—if all you have is the agreement of what the second wave was, then there is a lot of work needed to be done by current EAs to understand what typical EAs like themselves think and do. As humans that’s a pretty good sign of what is safe to do. If we had a way to agree this information quicker, I would have more brain space for work, actual substantive disagreements etc and more trust that the community could come to concensus here.
Seems like underrated work, thanks for doing it.
As a more sassy point here I’ll say something like “we talk a great game about how we want to improve the world and have billions in resources but seem to have a very immature understanding of ourselves as a community”.
It seems to me either we should have a lower opinion of ourselves or we should do some community introspection. If as a community we were a person, this level of reflection/synthesis seems more like that of a child than of a mature and well-integrated adult.
Who are we, what do we want, what do we fear, how do we deal with trauma, how do we change our minds? All of these are questions that a mature person can answer, that a reckless and powerful youth might not. I think we are closer to the latter than we think.
This is my weak view, not some kind of median view. Unless it gets lots of upvotes, in which case...
“I think the push for longtermism was shorter than being the defining cause of this period”—How so?