Wildly guessing, but I don’t think it’s a technological issue. Givewell does publish upper and lower estimates for some of their analyses, at least they did for malnutrition interventions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IdZLSBgEK46vc7cX9C7KnFgUcOk_M0UIYJ8go_DrvS0/edit#gid=1468241237 see at the bottom, 4x to 19x cash. Many of their CEAs (e.g. new incentives) are just one column. Even for the ones that have one column per country, they could have multiple sheets for upper and lower bounds.
I agree with your second point, I think GiveWell’s mission is not informing many small donors anymore, but informing OpenPhil (and maybe other big players), and OpenPhil cares mostly about GiveWell’s best guess about “what does the most good”.
Wildly guessing, but I don’t think it’s a technological issue.
Givewell does publish upper and lower estimates for some of their analyses, at least they did for malnutrition interventions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IdZLSBgEK46vc7cX9C7KnFgUcOk_M0UIYJ8go_DrvS0/edit#gid=1468241237 see at the bottom, 4x to 19x cash.
Many of their CEAs (e.g. new incentives) are just one column. Even for the ones that have one column per country, they could have multiple sheets for upper and lower bounds.
I agree with your second point, I think GiveWell’s mission is not informing many small donors anymore, but informing OpenPhil (and maybe other big players), and OpenPhil cares mostly about GiveWell’s best guess about “what does the most good”.
I disagree with the uncertainty being “not actually that high”, or that moral uncertainties should be considered separately. Considering moral uncertainty, the impact can vary by orders of magnitude. See https://blog.givewell.org/2008/08/22/dalys-and-disagreement/ (very old blog post, but I think the main point still stands), and https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3h3mscSSTwGs6qbei/givewell-s-charity-recommendations-require-taking-a. I think many donors would be interested in seeing those kinds of uncertainties somewhere.