As a side note, Derek Parfit was an early advocate of what you call the ‘Hinge of History Hypothesis’. He even uses the expression ‘hinge of history’ in the following quote (perhaps that’s the inspiration for your label):
We live during the hinge of history. Given the scientific and technological discoveries of the last two centuries, the world has never changed as fast. We shall soon have even greater powers to transform, not only our surroundings, but ourselves and our successors. If we act wisely in the next few centuries, humanity will survive its most dangerous and decisive period. Our descendants could, if necessary, go elsewhere, spreading through this galaxy. (On What Matters, vol. 2, Oxford, 2011, p. 616)
Interestingly, he had expressed similar views already in 1984, though back then he didn’t articulate why he believed that the present time is uniquely important:
the part of our moral theory… that covers how we affect future generations… is the most important part of our moral theory, since the next few centuries will be the most important in human history. (Reasons and Persons, Oxford, 1984, p. 351)
Thanks, Pablo! Yeah, the reference was deliberate — I’m actually aiming to turn a revised version of this post into a book chapter in a Festschrift for Parfit. But I should have given the great man his due! And I didn’t know he’d made the ‘most important centuries’ claim in Reasons and Persons, that’s very helpful!
As a side note, Derek Parfit was an early advocate of what you call the ‘Hinge of History Hypothesis’. He even uses the expression ‘hinge of history’ in the following quote (perhaps that’s the inspiration for your label):
Interestingly, he had expressed similar views already in 1984, though back then he didn’t articulate why he believed that the present time is uniquely important:
Thanks, Pablo! Yeah, the reference was deliberate — I’m actually aiming to turn a revised version of this post into a book chapter in a Festschrift for Parfit. But I should have given the great man his due! And I didn’t know he’d made the ‘most important centuries’ claim in Reasons and Persons, that’s very helpful!
Thanks Pablo, I also didn’t know he had claimed this at the very time he was introducing population ethics and extinction risk.