Even if we assume for the moment that the effect of the grant was net positive in increasing the safety of OpenAI itself, what if it accelerated their progress just a little and helped create this dangerous race we are in. When the head of Microsoft says “the race is on” basically referring to chatGPT, if this grant made even a 0.001 percent contribution to speeding up that race, which seems plausible then the grant could st theill be strongly net negative.
I don’t have a problem with your positive opinion (although I strongly disagree), but think it is good to engage with the stronger counterpoints, rather than what I think is a bit of a strawman with the “implicit endorsement” negative.
Oh, I just think the effect of the 30 million dollars is way smaller than the total value of labor from EAs working at OpenAI such that the effect of the money is dominated by EAs being more likely to work there. I’m not confident in this, but the money seems pretty unimportant ex-post while the labor seems quite important.
I think the speed up in timelines from people with EA/longtermist motivations working at OpenAI is more like 6 months to 3 years (I tend to think this speed up is bigger than other people I talk to). The speed up from money seems relatively tiny.
Edit: It’s worth noting that this grant is not counterfactually responsible for most of these people working at (or continuing to work at) OpenAI, but I do think that the human capital is likely a more important consideration than the literal financial capital here because of the total magnitude of human capital being bigger.
That’s an interesting argument thanks, i wouldn’t have thought instinctively that the counterfactual of having EA people rather than others working at OpenAi would speed up timelines to that extent
if that kind of speed up is close to accurate I would estimate the grant at even more net negative.
Oh, I just think the effect of the 30 million dollars is way smaller than the total value of labor from EAs working at OpenAI such that the effect of the money is dominated by EAs being more likely to work there. I’m not confident in this, but the money seems pretty unimportant ex-post while the labor seems quite important.
I think the speed up in timelines from people with EA/longtermist motivations working at OpenAI is more like 6 months to 3 years (I tend to think this speed up is bigger than other people I talk to). The speed up from money seems relatively tiny.
Edit: It’s worth noting that this grant is not counterfactually responsible for most of these people working at (or continuing to work at) OpenAI, but I do think that the human capital is likely a more important consideration than the literal financial capital here because of the total magnitude of human capital being bigger.
That’s an interesting argument thanks, i wouldn’t have thought instinctively that the counterfactual of having EA people rather than others working at OpenAi would speed up timelines to that extent
if that kind of speed up is close to accurate I would estimate the grant at even more net negative.