I don’t think any of the projects I remember us rejecting seemed like they had a huge amount of upside
That’s fair, and I should also be clear that I’m less familiar with LTFF’s grantmaking than some others in the EA universe.
It would be nice if we did quantified risk analysis for all of our grant applications, but ultimately we have limited time, and I think it makes sense to focus attention on cases where it does seem like the upside is unusually high.
Oh, I totally agree that the kind of risk analysis I mentioned is not costless, and for EA Funds in particular it seems like too much to expect. My main point is that in the absence of it, it’s not necessarily an optimal strategy to substitute an extreme version of the precautionary principle instead.
Overall, I agree that judging policy/institution-focused projects primarily based on upside makes sense.
Thanks for the response!
That’s fair, and I should also be clear that I’m less familiar with LTFF’s grantmaking than some others in the EA universe.
Oh, I totally agree that the kind of risk analysis I mentioned is not costless, and for EA Funds in particular it seems like too much to expect. My main point is that in the absence of it, it’s not necessarily an optimal strategy to substitute an extreme version of the precautionary principle instead.
Overall, I agree that judging policy/institution-focused projects primarily based on upside makes sense.