The probability of advocacy success is a fairly critical variable, and I agree that the estimate provided could well be too optimistic. It really depends on (a) what reference class you take, and (b) how you weigh it against subjective inside view estimates. For example, my estimate of (b) as informed by working in the public sector/politics is fairly low, but if you look do a case study of when sugar taxes were actually advocated (and implemented or not), it’s really impressive (~90%), and the real challenge becomes adjusting for selection bias—both with respect to it being tried (in countries where political conditions were more favourable in the first place), and successful attempts being noted in the news (while failed ones die inside the government, unreported).
On the one hand, sugary drinks taxes really aren’t that uncommon, so it’s not that surprising that it wouldn’t be too difficult to advocate for (relative to something like sodium tax advocacy, which is probably a quarter as tractable). I would also caution against using US lobbying costs, since that isn’t necessarily representative (i.e. the modal campaign wouldn’t be hiring K-street lobbyists in the US, so much as an NGO talking to low and middle-income countries governments, which tend to defer to NGOs than western governments do).
In general, I hope to get a better sense of this by talking to experts (even while noting that the public health experts may well also be overoptimistic due to halo effects/wishful thinking!)
The probability of advocacy success is a fairly critical variable, and I agree that the estimate provided could well be too optimistic. It really depends on (a) what reference class you take, and (b) how you weigh it against subjective inside view estimates. For example, my estimate of (b) as informed by working in the public sector/politics is fairly low, but if you look do a case study of when sugar taxes were actually advocated (and implemented or not), it’s really impressive (~90%), and the real challenge becomes adjusting for selection bias—both with respect to it being tried (in countries where political conditions were more favourable in the first place), and successful attempts being noted in the news (while failed ones die inside the government, unreported).
On the one hand, sugary drinks taxes really aren’t that uncommon, so it’s not that surprising that it wouldn’t be too difficult to advocate for (relative to something like sodium tax advocacy, which is probably a quarter as tractable). I would also caution against using US lobbying costs, since that isn’t necessarily representative (i.e. the modal campaign wouldn’t be hiring K-street lobbyists in the US, so much as an NGO talking to low and middle-income countries governments, which tend to defer to NGOs than western governments do).
In general, I hope to get a better sense of this by talking to experts (even while noting that the public health experts may well also be overoptimistic due to halo effects/wishful thinking!)