I have written this post introducing space and existential risk and this post on cosmic threats, and I’ve come up with some ideas for stuff I could do that might be impactful. So, inspired by this post, I am sharing a list of ideas for impactful projects I could work on in the area of space and existential risk. If anyone working on anything related to impact evaluation, policy, or existential risk feels like ranking these in order of what sounds the most promising, please do that in the comments. It would be super useful! Thank you! :)
(a) Policy report on the role of the space community in tackling existential risk: Put together a team of people working in different areas related to space and existential risk (cosmic threats, international collaborations, nuclear weapons monitoring, etc.). Conduct research and come together to write a policy report with recommendations for international space organisations to help tackle existential risk more effectively.
(b) Anthology of articles on space and existential risk: Ask researchers to write articles about topics related to space and existential risk and put them all together into an anthology. Publish it somewhere.
(c) Webinar series on space and existential risk: Build a community of people in the space sector working on areas related to existential risk by organising a series of webinars. Each webinar will be available virtually.
(d) Series of EA forum posts on space and existential risk: This should help guide people to an impactful career in the space sector, build a community in EA, and better integrate space into the EA community.
(e) Policy adaptation exercise SMPAG > AI safety: Use a mechanism mapping policy adaptation exercise to build on the success of the space sector in tackling asteroid impact risks (through the SMPAG) to figure out how organisations working on AI safety can be more effective.
(f) White paper on Russia and international space organisations: Russia’s involvement in international space missions and organisations following its invasion of Ukraine could be a good case study for building robust international organisations. E.g. Russia was ousted from ESA, is still actively participating on the International Space Station, and is still a member of SMPAG but not participating. Figuring out why Russia stayed involved or didn’t with each organisation could be useful.
(g) Organise an in-person event on impactful careers in the space sector: This would be aimed at effective altruists and would help gauge interest and provide value.
The space industry is well-funded and already cares a lot about demonstrating impact (using a broader definition of impact than EA) to justify its funding, so (a)-(c) might be possible with industry support, and to some extent already exists.
I think the overarching story behind (f) is relatively uncomplicated particularly in the context of ongoing trade between Russia and Ukraine-supporters over oil etc : Roscosmos continued to collaborate with NASA et al on stuff like ISS because agreements remained in place and were too critical to suspend. Russia was never actually part of ESA and I suspect many people would have preferred it if Roscosmos was kicked off projects like ExoMars earlier. Probably helps that the engineers and cosmonauts on both sides are likely a good deal more levelheaded than Dmitry Rogozhin, but I don’t think we’ll hear what went on behind closed doors for a while...
I have written this post introducing space and existential risk and this post on cosmic threats, and I’ve come up with some ideas for stuff I could do that might be impactful. So, inspired by this post, I am sharing a list of ideas for impactful projects I could work on in the area of space and existential risk. If anyone working on anything related to impact evaluation, policy, or existential risk feels like ranking these in order of what sounds the most promising, please do that in the comments. It would be super useful! Thank you! :)
(a) Policy report on the role of the space community in tackling existential risk: Put together a team of people working in different areas related to space and existential risk (cosmic threats, international collaborations, nuclear weapons monitoring, etc.). Conduct research and come together to write a policy report with recommendations for international space organisations to help tackle existential risk more effectively.
(b) Anthology of articles on space and existential risk: Ask researchers to write articles about topics related to space and existential risk and put them all together into an anthology. Publish it somewhere.
(c) Webinar series on space and existential risk: Build a community of people in the space sector working on areas related to existential risk by organising a series of webinars. Each webinar will be available virtually.
(d) Series of EA forum posts on space and existential risk: This should help guide people to an impactful career in the space sector, build a community in EA, and better integrate space into the EA community.
(e) Policy adaptation exercise SMPAG > AI safety: Use a mechanism mapping policy adaptation exercise to build on the success of the space sector in tackling asteroid impact risks (through the SMPAG) to figure out how organisations working on AI safety can be more effective.
(f) White paper on Russia and international space organisations: Russia’s involvement in international space missions and organisations following its invasion of Ukraine could be a good case study for building robust international organisations. E.g. Russia was ousted from ESA, is still actively participating on the International Space Station, and is still a member of SMPAG but not participating. Figuring out why Russia stayed involved or didn’t with each organisation could be useful.
(g) Organise an in-person event on impactful careers in the space sector: This would be aimed at effective altruists and would help gauge interest and provide value.
(d) might be interesting to read
The space industry is well-funded and already cares a lot about demonstrating impact (using a broader definition of impact than EA) to justify its funding, so (a)-(c) might be possible with industry support, and to some extent already exists.
I think the overarching story behind (f) is relatively uncomplicated particularly in the context of ongoing trade between Russia and Ukraine-supporters over oil etc : Roscosmos continued to collaborate with NASA et al on stuff like ISS because agreements remained in place and were too critical to suspend. Russia was never actually part of ESA and I suspect many people would have preferred it if Roscosmos was kicked off projects like ExoMars earlier. Probably helps that the engineers and cosmonauts on both sides are likely a good deal more levelheaded than Dmitry Rogozhin, but I don’t think we’ll hear what went on behind closed doors for a while...