This seems to underrate the arguments for Malthusian competition in the long run.
I’m mostly talking about what I expect to happen in the short-run in this thread. But I appreciate these arguments (and agree with most of them).
Plausibly my main disagreement with the concerns you raised is that I think coordination is maybe not very hard. Coordination seems to have gotten stronger over time, in the long-run. AI could also potentially make coordination much easier. As Bostrom has pointed out, historical trends point towards the creation of a Singleton.
I’m currently uncertain about whether to be more worried about a future world government becoming stagnant and inflexible. There’s a real risk that our institutions will at some point entrench an anti-innovation doctrine that prevents meaningful changes over very long time horizons out of a fear that any evolution would be too risky. As of right now I’m more worried about this potential failure mode versus the failure mode of unrestrained evolution, but it’s a close competition between the two concerns.
I’m mostly talking about what I expect to happen in the short-run in this thread. But I appreciate these arguments (and agree with most of them).
Plausibly my main disagreement with the concerns you raised is that I think coordination is maybe not very hard. Coordination seems to have gotten stronger over time, in the long-run. AI could also potentially make coordination much easier. As Bostrom has pointed out, historical trends point towards the creation of a Singleton.
I’m currently uncertain about whether to be more worried about a future world government becoming stagnant and inflexible. There’s a real risk that our institutions will at some point entrench an anti-innovation doctrine that prevents meaningful changes over very long time horizons out of a fear that any evolution would be too risky. As of right now I’m more worried about this potential failure mode versus the failure mode of unrestrained evolution, but it’s a close competition between the two concerns.