What reason is there to think that AI will shift the offense-defense balance absurdly towards offense? I admit such a thing is possible, but it doesn’t seem like AI is really the issue here. Can you elaborate?
I think main abstract argument for why this is plausible is that AI will change many things very quickly and in a high variance way. And some human processes will lag behind heavily.
This could plausibly (though not obviously) lead to offense dominance.
I’m not going to fully answer this question, b/c I have other work I should be doing, but I’ll toss in one argument. If different domains (cyber, bio, manipulation, ect.) have different offense-defense balances a sufficiently smart attacker will pick the domain with the worst balance. This recurses down further for at least some of these domains where they aren’t just a single thing, but a broad collection of vaguely related things.
What reason is there to think that AI will shift the offense-defense balance absurdly towards offense? I admit such a thing is possible, but it doesn’t seem like AI is really the issue here. Can you elaborate?
I think main abstract argument for why this is plausible is that AI will change many things very quickly and in a high variance way. And some human processes will lag behind heavily.
This could plausibly (though not obviously) lead to offense dominance.
I’m not going to fully answer this question, b/c I have other work I should be doing, but I’ll toss in one argument. If different domains (cyber, bio, manipulation, ect.) have different offense-defense balances a sufficiently smart attacker will pick the domain with the worst balance. This recurses down further for at least some of these domains where they aren’t just a single thing, but a broad collection of vaguely related things.