Your action X has this tiny positive near-term effect.
My action Y has this large positive long-term effect.
Therefore, Y is better than X.
To be clear, this wasn’t the structure of my original argument (though it might be Pablo’s). My argument was more like “you seem to be implying that action X is good because of its direct effect (literal first order acceleration), but actually the direct effect is small when considered in a particular perspective (longtermism), so for the that perspective we need to consideer indirect effects and the analysis for that looks pretty different”.
Note that I wasn’t trying really trying argue much about the sign of the indirect effect, though people have indeed discussed this in some detail in various contexts.
I agree your original argument was slightly different than the form I stated. I was speaking too loosely, and conflated what I thought Pablo might be thinking with what you stated originally.
I think the important claim from my comment is “As far as I can tell, I haven’t seen any argument in this thread that analyzed and compared the long-term effects in any detail, except perhaps in Ryan Greenblatt original comment, in which he linked to some other comments about a similar topic in a different thread (but I still don’t see what the exact argument is).”
I think the important claim from my comment is “As far as I can tell, I haven’t seen any argument in this thread that analyzed and compared the long-term effects in any detail, except perhaps in Ryan Greenblatt original comment, in which he linked to some other comments about a similar topic in a different thread (but I still don’t see what the exact argument is).”
Explicitly confirming that this seems right to me.
To be clear, this wasn’t the structure of my original argument (though it might be Pablo’s). My argument was more like “you seem to be implying that action X is good because of its direct effect (literal first order acceleration), but actually the direct effect is small when considered in a particular perspective (longtermism), so for the that perspective we need to consideer indirect effects and the analysis for that looks pretty different”.
Note that I wasn’t trying really trying argue much about the sign of the indirect effect, though people have indeed discussed this in some detail in various contexts.
I agree your original argument was slightly different than the form I stated. I was speaking too loosely, and conflated what I thought Pablo might be thinking with what you stated originally.
I think the important claim from my comment is “As far as I can tell, I haven’t seen any argument in this thread that analyzed and compared the long-term effects in any detail, except perhaps in Ryan Greenblatt original comment, in which he linked to some other comments about a similar topic in a different thread (but I still don’t see what the exact argument is).”
Explicitly confirming that this seems right to me.