I like your proposed third frame as a somewhat hopeful vision for the future.
Instead of pointing out why you think the other frames are poor, I think it would be helpful to maintain a more neutral approach and elaborate which assumptions each frame makes and give a link to your discussion about these in a sidenote.
The problem is that I am not trying to portray a “somewhat hopeful vision”, but rather present a framework for thinking clearly about AI risks, and how to mitigate them. I think the other frames are not merely too pessimistic: I think they are actually wrong, or at least misleading, in important ways that would predictably lead people to favor bad policy if taken seriously.
It’s true that I’m likely more optimistic along some axes than most EAs when it comes to AI (although I tend to think I’m less optimistic when it comes to things like whether moral reflection will be a significant force in the future). However, arguing for generic optimism is not my aim. My aim is to improve how people think about future AI.
Noted! The key point I was trying to make is that I’d think it helpful for the discourse to separate 1) how one would act in a frame and 2) why one thinks each one is more or less likely (which is more contentious and easily gets a bit political). Since your post aims at the former, and the latter has been discussed at more length elsewhere, it would make sense to further de-emphasize the latter.
1) how one would act in a frame and 2) why one thinks each one is more or less likely (which is more contentious and easily gets a bit political). Since your post aims at the former
My post aims at at both. It is a post about how to think about AI, and a large part of that is establishing the “right” framing.
I like your proposed third frame as a somewhat hopeful vision for the future. Instead of pointing out why you think the other frames are poor, I think it would be helpful to maintain a more neutral approach and elaborate which assumptions each frame makes and give a link to your discussion about these in a sidenote.
The problem is that I am not trying to portray a “somewhat hopeful vision”, but rather present a framework for thinking clearly about AI risks, and how to mitigate them. I think the other frames are not merely too pessimistic: I think they are actually wrong, or at least misleading, in important ways that would predictably lead people to favor bad policy if taken seriously.
It’s true that I’m likely more optimistic along some axes than most EAs when it comes to AI (although I tend to think I’m less optimistic when it comes to things like whether moral reflection will be a significant force in the future). However, arguing for generic optimism is not my aim. My aim is to improve how people think about future AI.
Noted! The key point I was trying to make is that I’d think it helpful for the discourse to separate 1) how one would act in a frame and 2) why one thinks each one is more or less likely (which is more contentious and easily gets a bit political). Since your post aims at the former, and the latter has been discussed at more length elsewhere, it would make sense to further de-emphasize the latter.
My post aims at at both. It is a post about how to think about AI, and a large part of that is establishing the “right” framing.